Former UFC champion Charles Oliveira is set to face American fighter Michael Chandler in a highly anticipated rematch. Their lightweight bout will take place on November 16 at UFC 309 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, USA.
Bookmakers are favoring the former champ, partly because he has been more active in the octagon recently. Charles not only matches Michael in striking but also surpasses him in grappling.
Chandler lost their first encounter, and it’s unlikely his form will be significantly better in the upcoming fight. Most likely, Michael will showcase his typical style with feints and predictable attacks, which Charles will be prepared for.
Charles Oliveira
- Background: Former UFC lightweight champion. Holds the promotion’s record for most submission victories.
- Record: 45 fights, 34 wins, 10 losses, 1 no contest.
Charles is eager to return to the octagon, and his form hasn’t shown any significant decline. Even in his recent loss to Arman Tsarukyan, the Brazilian demonstrated that he can still compete at the top level.
Given that he won the first fight against Chandler, Oliveira will be confident in his abilities. He is likely to employ a similar strategy as before but will approach the fight with more caution.
What to Expect from Oliveira Against Chandler
Charles will throw precise crosses to prevent Michael from closing the distance. The Brazilian will launch attacks with boxing combinations targeting different levels and will maintain a solid defense.
If Chandler manages to close the gap quickly, he’ll find himself in Oliveira’s clinch, where sharp elbow strikes will come into play. The former champ will combine one-two punches with low kicks and will soon add a devastating high kick.
He won’t hesitate to pull the American into his guard and work from the bottom. Charles will initiate a takedown when Michael starts to tire. From top position, Oliveira will use short and powerful strikes to force his opponent into a defensive shell, setting up a potential submission.
Oliveira’s Chances of Victory
Oliveira loves to take risks as much as Chandler does, but he defends better and survives tough situations more effectively. In striking exchanges, he’ll block punches, and on the ground, he’ll make it difficult for Chandler to land shots from the top. If he takes a heavy hook and goes down, he’s more likely to catch Michael in a triangle choke than allow himself to be finished.
Charles fights more intelligently and doesn’t fall for provocations. He will be slightly better than Chandler in most aspects of the fight, which increases his chances of victory.
Michael Chandler
- Background: Three-time Bellator lightweight champion. Winner of Bellator Season Four Lightweight Tournament. Former UFC lightweight title challenger.
- Record: 31 fights, 23 wins, 8 losses.
Michael grew tired of waiting for the elusive fight with Conor McGregor and decided to return to the octagon while he can still compete at a high level. Chandler is pleased to face the Brazilian, as it offers him a chance to avenge his loss and participate in a high-profile bout.
Training footage of the American is impressive, but it’s uncertain how he will perform in the octagon after a two-year layoff.
What to Expect from Chandler Against Oliveira
Chandler will start by adjusting the distance using short hops and an explosive jab. He’ll try to slip Oliveira’s combinations and unleash multiple powerful body hooks.
After head strikes, Michael will add a heavy front kick or attempt to chop down Charles’s leg with a low kick. He’ll also cut angles and throw unexpected hooks from various positions. Once he’s a bit closer, the American will incorporate uppercuts and immediately move to the side.
To avoid the clinch, Chandler will engage in exchanges at mid-range. In cage exchanges, he might be able to take Oliveira down to the canvas. He’ll then try to finish the opponent with sharp ground strikes but may soon return to standing.
Chandler’s Chances of Victory
If Michael hasn’t lost his explosive qualities and fighting spirit, he still has a chance for a stoppage victory. The problem is that in his pursuit of a finish, the American always risks getting knocked down himself.
He can get carried away at any moment and make a fatal mistake. Michael hasn’t appeared in the octagon for two years, so it’s unclear if he has maintained his skills and whether he can perform at a berserker pace for at least three rounds.
Fight Prediction: Oliveira vs. Chandler
In the first and second rounds, it won’t be easy for Oliveira to outstrike Chandler. While Michael is fresh, his quick punches reach the target easily, and he avoids unnecessary damage. Starting from the third round, Charles will pull ahead on points thanks to his diverse kicks and defensive skills.
It’s possible that we’ll see a stoppage victory by one of the fighters in this round, and most likely, it will be the more cautious Oliveira.
By the fifth round, the American risks going down and getting caught in a late submission. Charles will have the advantage in conditioning and cardio, making him the favorite in this fight.
Our prediction for the fight: Victory for Charles Oliveira.