Update 06 Nov 2024. The fight has officially been canceled. Belal Muhammad has withdrawn from the fight due to an infection in his leg.
On December 7th, Shavkat Rakhmonov, ranked #3 in the UFC welterweight division, will challenge reigning champion Belal Muhammad at UFC 310, held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Bookmakers have labeled Rakhmonov the favorite, and for good reason. Even for a champion like Belal, containing such a versatile and unpredictable fighter will be no easy task.
Analysts raised doubts about Muhammad’s confidence when he suggested that Rakhmonov hasn’t yet earned his title shot. Though Belal has vast experience, he’s never faced a fighter quite like Shavkat.
Shavkat Rakhmonov
- Record: 18-0-0
- Background: M1-Global champion, two UFC “Performance of the Night” awards, one UFC “Fight of the Night” bonus.
Fans worried they wouldn’t see Rakhmonov fight again this year, but the Kazakh fighter is set to finally enter the octagon for a long-awaited title shot. Shavkat will be in top form, knowing this opportunity was inevitable and that he’s had plenty of time to prepare. Now, he’ll aim to do what few in the UFC roster have managed—dominate Belal in all areas.
What to Expect from Rakhmonov Against Muhammad
Rakhmonov won’t rush into a firefight early. Instead, he’ll look to break down his opponent with a sharp jab and follow it up with a devastating high kick. He’ll carefully study Muhammad’s movements before unloading with front kicks and powerful right hooks.
Shavkat will pepper Muhammad with strikes from multiple angles, setting up a sneaky body shot or clinch entry. He knows he won’t secure a takedown right away, so expect Rakhmonov to mix in vicious knee strikes during clinch battles.
He’ll aim to trip Muhammad to the canvas or destabilize him with a crushing strike in a clinch break. On the ground, Rakhmonov will unleash ferocious ground-and-pound and look to take Muhammad’s back as the champion tries to stand up.
Rakhmonov’s Path to Victory
Shavkat’s unpredictability makes him nearly impossible to anticipate, and that will pose a huge problem for Belal. Whether he decides to strike or shoot for a takedown at unexpected moments, those surprises could win him rounds, giving him a strong chance at a finish or decision victory.
His durability, lethal boxing, and long reach give him a significant edge. Rakhmonov has a high probability of success, thanks to his adaptability and ability to make his opponent uncomfortable at all times.
Belal Muhammad
- Record: 24-3-0 (1 no contest)
- Background: UFC welterweight champion, Titan FC welterweight champion, two UFC “Performance of the Night” awards, one UFC “Fight of the Night” bonus.
Muhammad’s long journey to the top culminated in him capturing the welterweight title after dominating Leon Edwards, showcasing his strength and wrestling prowess that’s nearly impossible to counter.
As a well-rounded fighter and exceptional tactician, Muhammad’s biggest weapon against Rakhmonov will be his fight IQ. Having built a mental toughness from years of grinding through tough fights, Belal won’t be easily broken inside the octagon.
What to Expect from Muhammad Against Rakhmonov
To win, Muhammad will need to be an awkward fighter for Shavkat to deal with. He’ll constantly switch ranges, launching double attacks while moving laterally. After landing a lazy jab, Belal will throw a looping overhand followed by a low kick to the inside of Shavkat’s leg.
Muhammad’s wrestling will be key. He’ll go for low entries, aiming for Rakhmonov’s shin and adapting to whatever the situation presents. If Rakhmonov gets to the cage, Belal may let him go, but if Shavkat hesitates, Belal will complete the takedown. Expect Belal to also shoot for a leg after slipping punches or switching stances.
On top, Muhammad will try to lock Shavkat down, using elbows while forcing Rakhmonov to fight for every inch, draining his energy.
Muhammad’s Path to Victory
Belal will look to capitalize on any mistakes Shavkat makes, and if he finds an opening, he can finish the fight early. Rakhmonov could leave himself open for a big head shot, and Muhammad will aim to exploit that.
If Belal senses Shavkat tiring, he’ll try to finish the fight on the ground. He knows that spending extra time with Rakhmonov in the octagon is dangerous. But despite all this, Muhammad isn’t the favorite here, as Rakhmonov is a fighter who won’t be easily outclassed in either strength or skills.
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Belal Muhammad Fight Prediction
The first ten minutes of the fight will be a striking battle, with Belal showing more technical work, but Shavkat’s explosive power and ability to time his punches will likely be more effective. The third and fourth rounds may shift into a grappling contest, with Muhammad using his superior wrestling to find weaknesses in Rakhmonov’s balance.
The final round will be decisive, but it’s tough to predict the outcome. Whoever has more energy left after intense exchanges will take the fight. Still, Rakhmonov seems to be the slight favorite. Though he may be less technical, his overall advantages in power, speed, range, and reaction time make him a formidable opponent.
Rakhmonov’s unpredictability makes him a nightmare for the rational and calculated Muhammad. Shavkat won’t back down mentally either, as the chance to become the first UFC champion from Kazakhstan is a powerful motivator.