Khamzat Chimaev is set to face Robert Whittaker in a middleweight bout at UFC 308 on October 26 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE.
Despite previous health issues and a bout cancellation, Chimaev remains a strong favorite among bookmakers.
Khamzat Chimaev
- Recipient of 1 UFC “Fight of the Night” and 4 “Performance of the Night” bonuses. Three-time Swedish Freestyle Wrestling Champion. Brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
- Record: 13 fights, 13 wins, 0 losses.
Interestingly, analysts rated Borz’s chances slightly lower before his last fight. It’s not entirely clear why Chimaev has become such a one-sided favorite this time.
True fans weren’t deterred by news of the fighter’s recurring health issues, and Chimaev’s return to a full training camp while participating in Hype Reality clearly indicates he hasn’t lost his form.
However, he now faces one of the roster’s smartest fighters, who has outsmarted and outperformed even the most aggressive punchers. Whittaker has done this over five-round distances. It’s possible that the exchanges and brawls of past fights might work against Chimaev this time.
What to expect from Chimaev against Whittaker?
Borz won’t stay static in the stand-up, allowing Robert to circle around him and land strikes on the bounce. Although Chimaev was aggressive in his fight with Usman and took excessive risks in exchanges towards the end, this time he’s unlikely to try to match boxing skills with his opponent.
No matter how quickly Khamzat progresses, he will inevitably miss, expend a lot of energy on combinations, and expose himself to Robert’s precise counterattacks.
Therefore, Chimaev’s wrestling, his primary and most straightforward weapon, should once again take center stage.
Chimaev’s chances of victory
His chance for victory lies in prolonged ground control with gradual attempts to secure a submission. Chimaev won’t be able to choke out Whittaker in the first couple of minutes.
What’s crucial here is maintaining a dominant position on the ground, as well as the frequency and accuracy of strikes against his opponent. Only a significant point deficit could make Rob panic.
Considering Chimaev’s issues with recovery and endurance, ideally, he should choose this cautious gameplan. Problems may arise only when Rob gets back on his feet in the fourth round, and Khamzat might not have enough energy left for another takedown.
Robert Whittaker
- Former UFC Middleweight Champion. Recipient of 5 UFC “Fight of the Night” and 4 “Performance of the Night” bonuses. Black belt in 3 disciplines (Hapkido, Karate, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu).
- Record: 33 fights, 26 wins, 7 losses.
What we love about Rob is his absence of dirty trash talk and excuses in case of setbacks. After a disappointing fight with Du Plessis, he returned to the octagon to stop the massive Costa and (as promised) taught him a lesson in stand-up fighting.
Even despite his mistakes and Paulo’s excellent form, Rob managed to quickly reset and snatch a decision victory. The Reaper then accepted a fight with Aliskerov with the same cool head, whom many considered a clear favorite capable of easily overwhelming Whittaker.
But here too, Rob showed his best: he perfectly controlled the distance, read all of his opponent’s timings, and picked him apart with short punches on the bounce. There’s a chance that this very composure and timing will help him contain Chimaev’s furious onslaught.
What to expect from Whittaker against Chimaev?
Rob understands that he shouldn’t aggressively attack from the first seconds. Chimaev will come to him, so all Whittaker needs to do is stay on his feet near the fence for as long as possible, not allowing himself to be taken down too early.
His main weapons are overhands and lightning-fast counterattacks, most of which Chimaev will simply not have time to react to.
Rob will fight at the longest possible distance, working exclusively on bounces and not allowing himself to stay stationary in front of Khamzat.
Whittaker’s chances of victory
The Reaper’s chances of victory will appear if Chimaev indeed loses a lot of energy by the middle/end of the second round. So the classic “bicycle” tactic with counter-punches will help Whittaker avoid prolonged ground exchanges while picking apart his opponent with short combinations.
Rob must capitalize on Khamzat’s desire to engage in a brawl if the latter starts taking too many hits and wants to quickly even the score.
So, as banal as it may sound, Whittaker will again be saved only by his amazing fighting intelligence, endurance, and sense of distance with his opponent.
Khamzat Chimaev vs Robert Whittaker: Fight prediction
Notably, Rob will be the first fighter in two years to approach a bout with Khamzat not on short notice, but after a full training camp. Looking at Robert’s tactics, intelligence, and endurance, I understand that Khamzat will have only three (or maybe fewer) rounds to submit him. Otherwise, he will no longer be able to block the Reaper’s bounces and will eat too many sharp and heavy jabs.
Given that we’re expecting a 5-round confrontation, I’d immediately consider betting that the fight will definitely go past the halfway point. Rob won’t allow himself to be quickly pushed into deep waters, and Chimaev’s corner will demand a gradual increase in pace and a much smarter “game” than in the fight against Usman.
Nevertheless, it’s through more aggressive attacks and wrestling in the early rounds that Chimaev can take the fight early. For Khamzat, this fight will literally be the last chance for a successful title run. In case of defeat, it will be critically difficult to regain his media presence with such fight frequency. I suspect that if this meeting does take place, we’ll finally see Borz’s peak form, who will finish the fight by the middle of the third round.