Valentina Shevchenko is set to face women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso. Their third bout will take place on September 14 at UFC 306 at the Sphere arena in Las Vegas, USA.
This will be the third encounter between the two fighters. In their first fight, Valentina won two rounds and was ahead on points, but lost via submission in the fourth round, losing her belt. The second fight was close, ending in a draw, with Grasso retaining the title.
Bookmakers slightly favor Valentina. She has the advantage of more diverse striking and greater experience.
Alexa was slightly behind Valentina in wrestling in their last fight but compensated with grappling, speed, and pressure. Analysts suspect that the champion won’t show anything radically new.
Valentina Shevchenko
- Former UFC Women’s Flyweight Champion. 11-time Muay Thai World Champion, 3-time Kickboxing and K-1 World Champion, 2-time MMA World Champion.
- Record: 28 fights, 23 wins, 4 losses, 1 draw.
Shevchenko is dissatisfied with the verdict in the last fight, as she had never been so dependent on judges before, except for her bouts with Nunes. Valentina was outpaced, which rarely happened before, indicating that her best form might be behind her.
Shevchenko will pepper her opponent with low kicks and meet her with short combinations to the head. Valentina will try to slip Alexa’s offense and catch her with a surprise backfist. She’ll frequently throw middle and front kicks to the body, followed by attempts to catch the champion with a cross. Shevchenko will try to avoid exchanges and immediately use devastating knees at close range.
Valentina will definitely attempt a double-leg takedown away from the fence. On top, she’ll try to control the leg and land some ground-and-pound. As Grasso quickly stands up, Shevchenko will initiate a clinch against the fence.
Alexa Grasso
- Current UFC Flyweight Champion. Top pound-for-pound female fighter. Brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
- Record: 20 fights, 16 wins, 3 losses, 1 draw.
Judging by social media, Alexa is constantly training and understands that now is the time to create her legacy. She needs to convincingly defeat Shevchenko and stop sharing the spotlight with her. They’ve not only had two consecutive fights but also filmed an entire season of TUF, so the champion might be tired of this rivalry.
Grasso will be able to block strikes and cautiously close the distance. She’ll throw jabs and add quick one-two combinations. Alexa will try to dodge kicks and quickly rush in at close range with a series of powerful hooks. After three or four hard strikes up close, the champion will return to mid-range, then incorporate long straight punches and low kicks.
During clinch moments, Alexa will try to execute a takedown via trip, and on top, she’ll focus on control. Overall, the champion will try to keep Valentina at bay, countering her attacks and avoiding any grips.
Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso: Fight prediction
If Alexa gains even a slight speed advantage, she’ll definitely be able to outshoot Valentina in stand-up. Shevchenko has a large arsenal of kicks and the wrestling aspect on her side. However, Grasso is equally skilled in jiu-jitsu, so Valentina won’t be able to dominate on the ground.
Alexa is my favorite to win, as she can surpass her opponent in striking and avoid takedowns. Shevchenko and Grasso both have excellent stand-up defense, so a knockout is unlikely.
Valentina won’t want to repeat her mistakes and will be careful on the ground, making a submission unlikely as well. I believe the champion will win, most likely by judges’ decision.