On August 3, in the PFL 2024 season playoff semi-final, heavyweights Denis Goltsov and Tim Johnson will face off. Will the Russian Giant defeat his opponent, or will the American win the fight?
Denis Goltsov and Tim Johnson’s Current Form
According to this year’s fight statistics, Goltsov has the advantage. Denis landed on average 21% more strikes per minute and, unlike his opponent, executed two takedowns over three full rounds.
Last year, Goltsov reached the playoff series final but lost to Renan Ferreira by technical knockout, failing to win the championship title. In 2024, Denis fought twice and won both times. In April, he knocked out famous MMA veteran Linton Vassell, and in June, he put out the lights of former UFC top contender Thiago Santos. These victories secured the Russian Giant a place in the tournament semi-finals.
Johnson is an experienced MMA fighter who started competing in 2010. Tim’s career took a downturn in 2021 when he lost three fights in a row and nearly dropped out of Bellator. However, in 2023, the American offset his losses with a victory over Said Sowma, and this year he knocked out Darion Abbey and Danilo Marques. The victory over the latter advanced Johnson to the PFL semi-finals.
Strengths and Weaknesses of Goltsov and Johnson
Goltsov has good striking technique. He hits hard with his hands, occasionally throws kicks, and boasts high speed for a heavyweight. However, Denis can’t brag about phenomenal defense or incredible durability. Due to gaps in his defense and the lack of an iron chin, the Russian Giant has been knocked out four times.
Johnson didn’t train in striking martial arts, so his stand-up technique leaves much to be desired. He compensates for his lack of skill with a lot of power in his hands, which has earned him 10 knockout victories. With age, Tim hasn’t lost his power, as he knocked out his last two opponents in the first round.
Denis has repeatedly won gold medals in Russian and international sambo championships. Thanks to this, Goltsov is rightfully considered a skilled grappler and excels in cage wrestling. He easily executes takedowns and, once on the ground, applies ground-and-pound technique and performs submissions, with which he has won 11 fights.
Tim competed in collegiate freestyle wrestling tournaments but hasn’t achieved great success as a grappler in the cage. Johnson averaged only one takedown per 15 minutes and completed only one in four takedown attempts. Moreover, the American rarely performs submissions and usually limits himself to strikes on the canvas.
Denis Goltsov vs Tim Johnson Fight Prediction
Goltsov is likely to apply his traditional fighting tactics and start clinching at the beginning of the bout to take his opponent to the ground. Johnson has decent takedown defense, blocking 69% of takedowns, but he won’t be able to defend against all attacks and will sooner or later end up on the canvas. Tim is significantly inferior to Denis in ground work skills, so he won’t be able to resist his opponent on the canvas.
Johnson’s only chance to defeat the Russian Giant is in stand-up fighting. The American hits hard, and the Russian’s defense isn’t the best, so the possibility of a knockout by Tim can’t be ruled out. But Johnson is already 39 years old and has become much slower than in his youth. Therefore, we believe that Denis will manage to dodge or block heavy strikes and won’t fall to the mat.
Four of Johnson’s last five losses were by knockout, while Goltsov won four of his last five victories by knocking out his opponents. Given this statistic, it can be assumed that Denis will put out the American’s lights. Notably, four of the last six fights of both athletes ended in the first five minutes. Therefore, it makes sense to bet on the total rounds being under 1.5.
