Floyd will tell you this is the biggest challenge of his entire pro career. He has himself made the argument for Cotto still being an undefeated fighter (weight drained against Pacquiao, cheated by Margarito). Where as he will be boxing the real deal Miguel Cotto, in his preferred weight class and at his best.

Mayweather also knows the value in presenting Cotto at his most dangerous. He understands for a win to matter you need to be beating someone. He can build him up, break him down, and again one-up Pacquiao. There may be a marketing spin behind his reasoning, it doesn’t take from the fact that there is also some truth to his words. I do believe the Miguel Cotto he will meet on Saturday is a better and more dangerous one than faced Pacquiao.

Sure, Cotto is undersized at 154, but he has made it his home and is boxing well there. Floyd’s only previous trip this far up the scales was for the De La Hoya bout back in 2007 and he struggled that night. Something was missing; it just wasn’t quite the Money May we are used to seeing. The argument could be made that Mayweather has matured naturally since then, and like Cotto, is better off fighting heavy, without the added burden of shedding those final few pounds. His physicality against Mosley and Ortiz in particular may have been an indication of that. I don’t expect Cotto to have an easy time in a bullying contest, but the 154 pound limit has to be viewed as a Mayweather gamble.

There are two other key differences between this Cotto and the version that fought Pacquiao, both of which should make him a trickier proposition. Firstly, the Cotto camp was chaos when he fought Pacquiao. The fighter/trainer relationship wasn’t there, and without it, he went into the fight strategically ill prepared. I think in Pedro Diaz he has again found somebody he trusts to work the corner and who is compatible with his style.

The other issue (and this is a huge variable) is the differing effect of the two Margarito fights on the Cotto psyche. I felt Miguel was still in recovery mode from his first professional defeat when the Pacquiao bout rolled around, and in truth, for a long time after it to. He remained a great talent, but I didn’t see the same fire or belief in him. He had the look of a guy who was just there to do his job and punch the clock.

The rematch with Margarito turned that switch back on. It brought out an almost unsettling intensity and aggression in him, and perhaps he will again need that in this fight. The Margarito demons have been exercised, and whether or not Mayweather thinks him an unbeaten fighter, Cotto will feel like one himself.

Mayweather’s detractors will say that Cotto is stylistically made to order for Floyd – another example of his cherry picking the right opponent at the right time – and they might be right. If Cotto can’t take something out of him in the first three rounds, I see him having a rough evening. He needs to rattle Floyd early and take the sting out of the fight. Otherwise he’s just going to be beaten to the punch and frustrated all night.

I expect a monumental effort from the Puerto Rican and I will tell you why: this is the last fight out there that can increase his legacy. He is hall of fame bound no doubt, but this is the fight which can take him above that, and it’s probably his last shot. The Pacquiao fight is gone, the step up to middleweight seems a bridge to far, so Floyd is the one career defining fight left out there. He will give it hell, but ultimately he will be found too slow and too easy to hit to outscore Mayweather.

Prediction: Mayweather on the cards

I use the word faded as it’s an accurate term to describe the 37 year old Corley. Past his best; certainly, but not ‘gone’ or ‘shot’, just faded. His recent record doesn’t glisten, but it also has a tendency mislead. While Corley has lost more than he’s won since dropping his title to Zab Judah back in 2003, he’s also the b-side in pretty much every fight he takes these days and generally does better than expected.

Corley brings huge experience to this fight having fought everybody at light welterweight at one point of another. There have been occasions where he’s been unlucky with the judges, times when he was flat out robbed, and others where he was simply bested by a better fighter, but it’s a testament to his character that he’s maintained a winners mentality through it all. He will go into this fight like he does every other; expecting to upset the applecart.

Lucas Matthysse is the only guy who has really overwhelmed Corley in the last few years. He gave Marcos Maidana a torrid time in 2010 before losing a decision, and is coming off his best win in years – an upset victory over then undefeated prospect Gabriel Bracero back in January. Chop Chop knows a win now over McCloskey would put him back in the hunt for titles himself.

This is a potential banana skin fight for McCloskey. Corley comes in as a replacement for Julio Diaz, but should realistically prove a much stiffer test than the shop worn and recently inactive Diaz. This is by no means a gimmie opponent, and a loss here would be a major setback for the Dungiven southpaw. If he wants to force his way into another shot at world honours, this is a guy he needs to beat and beat well.

Last time out he struggled to a close decision over the big punching Breidis Prescott. It was an incredibly gutsy performance from the Irishman, but one he freely admits was not his best. In it he showed a frustration left over from having his first world title opportunity waved off courtesy of a headbutt – the normally elusive McCloskey choosing to war with his more physically imposing opponent, and in the process, giving himself a mountain to climb. Tonight he will want to make a statement and prove that amongst the divisions best is still where he belongs.

I expect a game effort as always with Corley, but I see McCloskey starting to boss the fight in the middle rounds once he has settled into his rhythm. When it begins to flow for McCloskey he’s a very accurate puncher and underrated finisher. Chop Chop at 37 is less of a mover and will be there to be hit. I look for McCloskey to take him out in style in the final quarter.

Prediction: McCloskey by KO in the 10th.

Quarter Final Brackets:
Eamonn O’Kane (4-0) vs. Anthony Fitzgerald (13-2)
Ciaran Healy (13-9-1) vs. Ryan Greene (5-0)

Darren Cruise (3-1) vs. JJ McDonagh (6-1)
Simon O’Donnell (11-1) vs. Joe Rea (7-7-1)

Preview:
O’Kane and Fitzgerald meeting in the first round really opens up the draw for some of the other fighters. They are my two pre-tournament favourites, but we have often seen tough opening bouts take their toll in the one night tournament format.

O’Kane is the type of guy Prizefighter was made for. He comes with good amateur pedigree having taken gold in the 2010 Commonwealth Games, but was a late turn over to the paid ranks. At 30, he really needs to be moved along quite quickly and a win here would help to fast track him.

Dublin’s Anthony Fitzgerald had a rough start to his career going 1-2 in his first three fights, including being badly starched by a journeyman opponent on the undercard of Bernard Dunne’s WBA title win over Ricardo Cordoba. Fitzgerald bounced back well however, notching up 12 straight wins since then against steadily improving competition. He’s the most accomplished pro in the field – his stoppage victory over the useful Affif Belghecham in City West last year being the best win of anyone in the tournament.

Healy and Greene are both massive betting underdogs, but will each fancy a shot at whoever scrapes through between O’Kane and Fitzgerald. If one of these guys can make it through fresh they might have a shot at springing a big upset.

The four men in the bottom half of the draw will probably feel they have the easier route to the final. Cruise and McDonagh share a common last opponent in Lee Murtagh. McDonagh beat him earlier this year to win the Irish super middleweight title, while Cruise lost to him late last year. McDonagh caries a decent form line into Prizefighter and will be expected to progress here. He’s big at the weight, rangy, with an effective jab, which combined with a reasonable draw, could make him a good outsider.

The big surprise in the betting puts Joe Rea as second favourite, only behind O’Kane. Rea has lost his last six straight, but they have all come against talented opposition, including a competitive decision defeat to O’Kane back in September. He’s definitely been matched hardest out of anyone in the line up, and is said to be looking rejuvenated after some good sparring sessions with British light heavyweight champion Tony Bellew. The bookmakers favour him to emerge from the lower bracket.

Prediction:
The favourite rarely wins in Prizefighter, but this time I find it hard to see past O’Kane. While he’s got a difficult first round match up, he will also have the longest recovery period between bouts should he make it past Fitzgerald. He’s the best ring technician of the eight fighters, and should prove to be just a skill level or two above the rest of the group.

For Bellew, it’s all about staying in contention. The Liverpool loudmouth is coming off his first career loss in a failed attempt to capture the WBO title from Nathan Cleverly last October. Far from a damaging defeat, it was a performance that enhanced Bellew’s standing at light heavyweight.

The Cleverly/Bellew match up had always seemed like an obvious fit. The very real rivalry between the two, combined with Bellew’s popularity in Liverpool, guaranteed there would be an appetite for the bout. The feeling in the trade however; was that they were two fighters drifting further apart in level. Cleverly was developing into a world class operator, while Bellew seemed to have plateaued at British title level.

Trips to canvas against Bob Ajisafe and Ovill McKenzie did little to further Bellew’s calls for a title shot, but he pleaded that a Cleverly match up was what he needed to bring the best out of him. He got it and it did.

A spirited effort from Bellew was anticipated, but few figured it would mount to much more than an entertaining blow out against the highly regarded Welsh man. And while I felt Cleverly was good for his win on the night, the majority decision verdict was far closer than expected, with Bellew proving he was every bit his equal and at times bossing the fight. It was an eye opening performance from The Bomber, but it’s one he needs to build on. A slip up tonight and all his good work could very easily be undone.

In the opposite corner, the very likable Danny McIntosh is also on the comeback trail, following the loss of his European title to Eduard Gutknecht last year. A late starter in Boxing, McIntosh probably already exceeded his pro expectation by claiming the EBU title to begin with – digging deep away from home to take out Thierry Karl in 11 rounds.

The other loss on his slate was a gutsy effort against Nathan Cleverly which ended in a 7th round stoppage. McIntosh may have stolen the show that night though, when he was on the receiving end of what looked to be a knock out right-hand, only to kip-up like Shawn Michaels, much to frustration of the clearly stunned Cleverly.

Prior to the Gutknecht defeat, McIntosh had been showing noticeable fight on fight improvement. He has had nearly a year lay off since that loss, which while not ideal preparation, may serve him well. The back to back brawls with Gutknecht and Karl were draining fights. It’s possible the time away from the ring will help recharge his batteries. He’s well used to gaps between bouts with only 15 fights in a seven year career, so I don’t expect the time out of the ring to have had too much of a disruptive influence. And at his best, he definitely has the power to trouble Bellew.

On paper this is a great domestic dust up. Bellew, at home, is a strong favourite with the bookies. But these are two well matched boxers, both in equal measure exciting as they are vulnerable. Two knockout artists with suspect chins. This is the type of fight where the winner may have to take a count at some point.

If what we saw against Cleverly is an indication of what we will see from now on from Tony Bellew, I think he wins this fight and wins it big. That smarter version of Bellew,who knows when to box and when to fight, and who doesn’t leave his chin as an open target, is just too skilled for McIntosh. If we see the gunslinger of old, then all bets are off.
My feeling is Bellew is here to stay.

Prediction: Bellew on points

Evans calls Jones fake. Jones says he’s the champ and Rashad is just jealous. And Greg Jackson is Miss Elizabeth. Sorry, I was reminiscing. Jones and Evans may have never had a special handshake or called themselves the Mega Powers, but they’ll surely have an explosive fight come Saturday night.

The FGB crew along with Stevie J from Angrymarks and friend of the site JP, give their prediction for the championship fight.

Rashad Evans vs. Jon Jones

Alan: Jones by 4th round TKO
Duan: Jones by decision
Stevie: Jones by 2nd round submission
JP: Jones by 3rd round submission
Big D: Jones by 3rd round submission
Cactus Jim: Jones by decision
GG: Jones by decision

Alan says:

The best thing I can say about Evans vs. Jones is that this is the first UFC match in ages that I’ve found myself thinking about during periods were my brain goes drifting off in work. Normally that space is reserved for pro wrestling or deciding what I’ll have for dinner. Through the really great build-up shows, the characters, the story and the fact that I think the fight itself is really really interesting (something a lot of people are looking past due to how interesting the story surrounding it is), this bout has become something I’m really excited for. Picking a winner here is really difficult. The main reason for this is that one of the biggest factors here is also one of the biggest unknowns – that being how well does Rashad know Jones’ game? Has Rashad got the inside scoop to answer the Jones puzzle that the likes of Shogun, Jackson and Machida didn’t have? You could say that it goes in both directions but Jones was a young fighter when he started training with Rashad, and Evans was well-seasoned. He was probably able to read a lot more about Jones in their time together than Jones was about him. That’s just the nature of being experienced. Then again, Jones has Greg Jackson in his ear and if anyone knows Rashad it’s him so maybe it will work both ways.

Another big factor in the fight will be Jones’ crazy reach and how Rashad can deal with it. He’s probably well used to having to get inside on the gangly champion, so it could be something he can take out of Jones’ game. Wrestling wise I think it’s a wash and don’t see either guy having their way with the other. I would like Rashad to get this done, however see it ending up like an extended version of the Machida fight where he’ll have a lot of success early but Jones will dig down and outclass him eventually.

Duan says:

Whether they would admit it or not, I imagine these two respect each others’ wrestling bases, and because of that they will both probably favour a striking battle. If it’s fought on the outside, Jones takes Evans apart. At close range, it becomes an interesting fight.

On the feet Jones is unorthodox, but not unflawed. In a technical sense, he’s prone to mistakes. He overextends on shots, he leaves himself open when striking, and his chin is out there begging to be whacked. Here’s the problem though; he does all those things in every fight and he’s still essentially unbeaten.

Now, if I was looking for somebody to exploit those weaknesses, I would pick a fighter with a very traditional stand up game like a Rashad Evans – technically solid, good movement, quick with the hands, and the type of power to change a fight. Most importantly though, he’s patient and he’s durable. He can wait for that mistake to come, and when it does, he will get his shot to turn Jones over.

The simple truth though is that those big one hit KOs on Rashad’s record have not come against top level opposition. WAIT….I know what you are about to say…and no, Chuck Liddell was not a world class light heavyweight when Evans iced him. Rashad becomes a point scorer in tight fights, and he can’t win this one that way. He may outscore Jones in bursts when he finds his range. I just don’t see him doing it frequently enough to pick up rounds. He’s giving up too much physically to a bigger, younger and more athletic fighter.

Stevie says:

He’s (Jones) got crazy reach and all Evans can try to do is outwrestle him – I don’t think that’ll work.

JP says:

The main event for UFC 145 has enjoyed some of the greatest buildup in MMA history and, coupled with being the first paid event since February, should produce a big buy rate for Dana White and friends. The story is over a year in the making — Jon Jones, the young pillar of the sport’s future, facing off against former friend and training partner Rashad Evans. Unfortunately I believe the fight will be decidedly less dramatic.

In fact, I expect Jones to make an example out of Evans by showcasing every area of his abilities before finishing the fight. In round one, I expect it to be pure standup with Jones mixing his elbows, knees, fists and kicks seamlessly to keep Evans backpedaling. In round two, I’m looking for Jones to take the first opening and plant Rashad on his back, and spend a few minutes eating elbows. If Evans makes it to round three, I’m looking for Jones to use his superior length to apply a fight finishing submission. At no point does Rashad put the champ in any danger and soon after Evans announces his plans to cut down to middleweight.

Big D says:

Rashad Evans is without question the biggest threat to Jonny “Bones” Jones’ title reign, even more-so than Machida, not just because Rashad has been nearly unbeatable since coming into the UFC in 2006, but also because he knows all of Bones’ secrets. However, the same can be said about Bones, and everybody knows Greg Jackson has filled Bones’ heads with all of the ins and outs of Rashad. If ANYBODY is taking it from Bones, it’ll be Rashad, but I just don’t see it on this night. Jones is too fast and too athletic, but he STILL needs to take this fight seriously. No monkeying around. Just get in there and win, which I think he’ll do.

Cactus Jim says:

What can be said about the build up to this fight that hasn’t already been said? Absolutely nothing, so I’ll just get right to it. Rashad Evans has great wrestling skills and has never been afraid to use them when needed. Jon Jones has a good wrestling defense and can hold his own on the ground. Although Rashad has an edge in wrestling, I think the closest to the ground either of these guys wants to get is when they bear crawl into the ring. Rashad may resort to a takedown if he’s getting annihilated on his feet, but my guess is that he’ll take his chances with his chin and technical striking skills and hang in there unless there is no other option. Jones, as well, will likely want to keep this on the feet and utilize his length and unorthodox striking to try to tag the aforementioned chin and leave Rashad with visions of Suga plums dancing in his head. My prediction is that Jones is able to land better shots and land more often than Evans. He’ll use his reach and his speed to work his way to a decision victory. I hope I’m wrong, but my guess is this will be an anticlimactic ending to a long talked about rivalry. Neither guy will come out looking great, nor will either come out looking nearly as good as they have in previous fights. In the end, however, Jon Jones will come out looking like the guy to beat if you want to hold the title.

GG says:

Rashad Evans should’ve never called Jon Jones his little brother. Little brothers by nature are competitive as all hell and always have a measuring stick. Plus, Jones already has an older brother. I actually think that was the beginning of their fractured relationship. It gave Jones someone to measure himself against in his new sport. I’d love to see Evans test him because I’m not really quite sure we know how good Jones is or can be. We know that Evans is tough, fast, and is a really good wrestler. The key for Evans is to use his boxing to make Jones overcommit, much like Duan mentioned above. Jones takes chances because he’s so athletic and also pretty cocky. Evans needs to make him pay for those mistakes. I don’t think it’s going to be a total blitz and I think Rashad goes the distance. He has to. He has to do it for all the older brothers.

We’ll have play by play of the show tomorrow night.

]]> http://fightgameblog.com/2012/04/ufc-145-preview-rashad-evans-vs-jon-jones/feed/ 0 http://fightgameblog.com/2012/03/road-to-wrestlemania-28-%e2%80%93-final-week/ http://fightgameblog.com/2012/03/road-to-wrestlemania-28-%e2%80%93-final-week/#comments Tue, 27 Mar 2012 17:00:23 +0000 GG http://fightgameblog.com/?p=11110 Rather than write another 800 words on the Road To WrestleMania 28, I decided to get Big D on a podcast so we could discuss not only Raw from last night, but also to preview the entire WrestleMania 28 card.

You can find Big D on Twitter @EmperorBigD, on Facebook, and at his website, Superfriends Universe.

We first talked about the build for The Rock vs. John Cena and what we liked and didn’t like and also what we thought they could’ve done instead. We discussed the finish of the match, who we both thinks has to win, and how they could make sure that John Cena is a better character after the match.

We go through all of the matches and the build for each match. We talk about who we think should win each match, but also who we think will win each match.

We also discuss our Greatest Wrestlers Of The WrestleMania Era list that is currently ongoing on the website now.

Thanks for listening.

Right click to download or stream below.

]]> http://fightgameblog.com/2012/03/road-to-wrestlemania-28-%e2%80%93-final-week/feed/ 0 http://fightgameblog.com/2012/03/war-of-the-roses-preview-hatton-vs-brook/ http://fightgameblog.com/2012/03/war-of-the-roses-preview-hatton-vs-brook/#comments Sat, 17 Mar 2012 18:32:21 +0000 Duan http://fightgameblog.com/?p=10918 A famous last name in Boxing is both a blessing and a curse. For Matthew Hatton, it has opened doors, provided a fanbase, and afforded him matchmaking more favourable than a fighter of his ability could usually expect. It has, however, also meant that he has spent a career lost in his big brother’s shadow. Dismissed by those in the fight game – the conversation quickly transitioned from “he’s not Ricky” to “he’s nobody” – a sentiment reiterated until it was recognized as fact.

While his improvements have been ignored and his successes undermined, the younger Hatton has worked tirelessly to maximize the return on his modest talent. At 30 years old, he stands as a well rounded and crafty pro. He’s solid in every area, spectacular in none, but as tough and determined as they come. He pushed veteran Lovemore N’dou to a draw, won and defended the European belt, and took Mexican superstar Saúl Álvarez the distance in his first world title tilt – a result made more impressive by the fact Hatton was fighting out of his weight class. Matthew has earned his place as Britain’s number 2 welterweight, and with expert tactician Bob Shannon in his corner, you can be assured he will enter the ring tonight with a gameplan to beat Kell Brook.

Brook, long since thought of as British Boxing’s next breakout star, is flashy, charismatic, with excellent speed and reflexes, and real power. A similar mold to past Ingle gym fighters Herol Graham and Naseem Hamed, Brook can throw the full range of shots, he’s tremendous on the counter, but tighter defensively than his predecessors. In his 26 fight career, he’s yet to be truly tested. That should change tonight.

For a long time, Brook floundered on the undercards of Frank Warren bills in Liverpool and Manchester. Proven a class above domestic competition, the Brook brand needed building to entice clashes with the divisions bigger names, and support bouts on the road were doing little to aid his development. When the switch to Matchroom Sports came last year, promoter Eddie Hearn set about making him a headline attraction in his home of Sheffield. The Motorpoint Arena was just 300 below capacity midweek. Those tickets will almost certainly have moved by bell time and we should be looking at a 10,000 seat sell out. Job done.

This is the fight Kell has been desperately needing. The arena is sold, Sky has backed the bout, and it has the feel of a major event. Brook vs. Hatton has captured the public’s imagination; it’s as simple as that. A big performance tonight and those marquee welterweight fights become a very real possibility for The Special One.

Matthew Hatton will make Brook fight him. You get a hundred percent every time with this guy. If you cut corners or lack character, he is the type of boxer that will break you down. He is capable of taking Brook to the edge, but Kell’s natural talents should ultimately end up being just too much to overcome. Brook survives a spirited Hatton effort to take a close but clear decision. He will go on to fight for a World title and win that to.

Prediction: Brook by decision

]]> http://fightgameblog.com/2012/03/war-of-the-roses-preview-hatton-vs-brook/feed/ 0 http://fightgameblog.com/2012/02/ufc-144-preview-benson-henderson-vs-frankie-edgar/ http://fightgameblog.com/2012/02/ufc-144-preview-benson-henderson-vs-frankie-edgar/#comments Fri, 24 Feb 2012 18:15:56 +0000 GG http://fightgameblog.com/?p=10795 This is the UFC’s return to Japan since UFC 29, which featured the likes of Tito Ortiz, Matt Hughes, and Chuck Liddell. The main event of this go-around is Frankie Edgar defending his lightweight title against Benson Henderson. It’s also Rampage Jackson’s return to Japan and the card features many Japanese fighters.

We’re going to do this preview a little differently than usual. We have one writer breaking down every fight on the live card.

The FGB crew along with Stevie J from Angrymarks and friend of the website, JP, have all the predictions.

Joe Lauzon vs. Anthony Pettis

Alan: Pettis by decision
Duan: Lauzon by decision
Stevie: Lauzon by 2nd round submission
JP: Pettis by 2nd round TKO
Big D: Pettis by decision
Cactus Jim: Pettis by 3rd round submission
GG: Pettis by decision

Big D says:

Anthony Pettis and Joe Lauzon both have something in common. At one or two times in their career, they were seen as possible serious championship contenders. In 2007, J-Lau went on a win streak before being stopped by Ken Flo. He’s tried to bounce back but stayed in the midcard. Anthony Pettis delivered the kick heard round the world on Ben Henderson and went on to take his title (Ben is ironically getting a TITLE shot on this show). Pettis then went on to lose to Clay Guida and derail his push for lack of a better term. This fight is about redemption. Pettis is the more athletic but J Lau has always been headstrong. He fights til the end. I’m very excited to see if he can withstand Pettis’ speed and creativity in the octagon. I like Mr. J L (Not Jerry Lynn), but J is taking the L here.

Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Palaszewski

Alan: Hioki by 3rd round submission
Duan: Palaszewski by split decision
Stevie: Palaszewski by 1st round TKO
JP: Hioki by decision
Big D: Palaszewski by 2nd round submission
Cactus Jim: Hioki by decision
GG: Palaszewski by decision

Alan says:

This will be a fight where Bart spends a lot of time on his back getting pounded on. But he’s tough as nails and will be able to survive for longer than most. He’ll get it back to the feet on occasion and will try to throw bombs out of desperation. If he catches Hioki it could be trouble for the hometown boy, but I think he’ll end up back on his back before that happens and Hioki will get a round 3 rear naked choke submission.

Tim Boetsch vs. Yushin Okami

Alan: Okami by decision
Duan: Okami by decision
Stevie: Okami by decision
JP: Okami by decision
Big D: Okami by decision
Cactus Jim: Okami by decision
GG: Okami by 3rd round TKO

GG says:

The thing about Okami’s style is that it allows him to be in nearly every fight, but also allows his opponent to seemingly be in every fight as well. I fully expect Okami to win in front of his home Japanese crowd and like everyone, it’s probably not going to be all that visually pleasing. I think Boetsch is the kind of guy who will give him a game fight, but in the end, isn’t talented enough to beat the former number one contender. It’s Boetsch’s third fight at 185 and he’s 2-0 since dropping down, but in fighting Okami, he’s probably going to be the smaller guy in cage. Okami’s at least 3 inches taller and come fight time, they’ll probably be similar in weight, so whatever size advantage Boetsch may have at 185 after being a 205′er, I don’t think he has it here. In addition, I’m even taking Okami by stoppage. I think being back in Pride and fighting in front of the Japanese crowd may give him that little extra to end the fight by ground and pound.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields

Alan: Akiyama by decision
Duan: Shields by 2nd round submission
Stevie: Shields by decision
JP: Shields by 2nd round submission
Big D: Shields by decision
Cactus Jim: Shields by 2nd round submission
GG: Shields by 2nd round TKO

JP says:

This seems to be an apparent “loser leaves town” type fight because both of these guys have been fairly disappointing in their UFC tenures. Akiyama never failed to bring the fight at 185 but was often undersized and simply not as talented as guys like Bisping and Belfort. He fits better at 170 but won’t get much of a break in terms of talented opponents. Shields is riding a two fight losing streak after Jake Ellenberger cleared him out with a knee in his last fight. Both guys probably need a win to keep their jobs. Akiyama didn’t show much power at 185 and Shields survived bombs from Dan Henderson so a knockout isn’t a real concern here. Jake also has excellent submission skills so being on his back against Akiyama’s top game isn’t a major problem either. But I like the American to drag Akiyama to the floor and work for the submission, which he finds in round two in form of a Kimura.

Mark Hunt vs. Cheick Kongo

Alan: Hunt by 1st round TKO
Duan: Kongo by 2nd round TKO
Stevie: Kongo by 3rd round TKO
JP: Kongo by 1st round TKO
Big D: Hunt by 2nd round TKO
Cactus Jim: Kongo by 2nd round TKO
GG: Kongo by 3rd round TKO

Duan says:

It’s hard to believe now, but in 2001, Mark Hunt was the K1 World Grand Prix champion. This is a guy who has mixed it with the likes of Ray Sefo, Ernesto Hoost and Jérôme Le Banner. He has competed at a level Cheick Kongo has never even been in touching distance of, and with Kongo’s primary weapon being his stand up, one would be forgiven for thinking this was a tricky styles match up for the French powerhouse. To put it simply, Mark Hunt isn’t that fighter anymore.

Lets put to one side Hunt’s 2011 success, and take a look back to his last run in Japan, where he notched up five straight losses – all by first round stoppage. In consecutive fights, he was starched by Manhoef and subbed by Mousasi – both essentially middleweights at the time. The fact he has been able to rehab his career, and in UFC of all places, is 1) astonishing and 2) damning of the heavyweight division. At 37, he’s not getting any better, and I struggle to believe he’s still a UFC quality fighter. Kongo, through better and worse, has proven that he is.

Cheick will soften him up for a round/round 1/2 on the feet and then finish it with ground and pound.

Ryan Bader vs. Rampage Jackson

Alan: Jackson by 2nd round TKO
Duan: Jackson by decision
Stevie: Jackson by split decision
JP: Bader by decision
Big D: Bader by decision
Cactus Jim: Jackson by 3rd round TKO
GG: Jackson by 3rd round TKO

Cactus Jim says:

Rampage makes his return to Japan at UFC 144 and I’m sure he’ll be looking to live up to his glory days in Pride. Coming into this one, I think that Rampage has a lot of key elements in his favor. He has the better striking and counterpunching. He has a lot of fights under his belt, many of them in Japan. Size and strength are about even in my opinion as are their wrestling skills. I see Rampage’s patience and experience paying off for him here. He’ll work Bader from the outside and try to keep this fight on its feet. Bader’s probably got to get inside and grind and sling everything he has if he has a chance at taking this fight. My prediction is that somewhere after the middle of the fight, that Bader’s luck runs out and Quinton catches him with a big punch and finishes him off on the ground.

Benson Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar

Alan: Henderson by decision
Duan: Edgar by decision
Stevie: Edgar by decision
JP: Henderson by decision
Big D: Edgar by 3rd round TKO
Cactus Jim: Edgar by decision
GG: Henderson by decision

Stevie J says:

First rule of thumb – don’t underestimate Frankie Edgar. There aren’t many people who can say they’ve beat BJ Penn twice (GSP is the only other man I can think of) and he’s already avenged the only draw OR loss he ever had in his career (both to the same man). Clarion might not have the wrestling reputation of Penn State or Iowa State, but given he was a high school and college standout, that means he had a solid skill set BEFORE his full-time MMA career. That’s only improved with time, he owns a few submission wins, and if his last win tells us anything, he added KO power to his arsenal. Second rule of thumb – don’t underestimate Benson Henderson. Donald Cerrone is a bad dude, and he beat him twice. Bocek and Miller are as tough as they come in jiu-jitsu, and Clay Guida is a human dynamo with awesome grappling AND striking. Take away one Showtime Pettis Matrix Kick and his undefeated streak would run backward to 2007.

Vegas has Edgar as a slight favorite as of my writing this preview, and it’s so narrow that gets me thinking these two are even more evenly matched than Edgar vs. Maynard (Maynard may have had the first win, but Edgar looked every bit the better man going into II and III). At the end of the day this is one of those “10 gets one man 6 and the other 4 wins” scenarios, but if I narrow it down to just one reason one man will win, Edgar already knows Ben is the human Gumby when he comes to submissions and since they’re not his strongest card in the deck, he’s not even going to waste time on them. Ben’s only got two TKO wins, and none against the UFC elite lightweights. Now picture a scenario where one man doesn’t fear the other’s striking, is a good enough wrestler to stuff the other’s takedowns, and won’t burn up his cardio going for futile submissions if he did wind up on his back. He might lose a round, even two, but like Condit vs. Diaz he’ll find a way to win 3 out of 5 – and that’s all it takes. Edgar wins a close and possibly controversial fight by unanimous decision.

We’ll have play by play of UFC 144 tomorrow.

]]> http://fightgameblog.com/2012/02/ufc-144-preview-benson-henderson-vs-frankie-edgar/feed/ 0 http://fightgameblog.com/2012/02/ufc-143-preview-carlos-condit-vs-nick-diaz/ http://fightgameblog.com/2012/02/ufc-143-preview-carlos-condit-vs-nick-diaz/#comments Fri, 03 Feb 2012 19:05:49 +0000 GG http://fightgameblog.com/?p=10695 Originally scheduled to be Georges St. Pierre vs. Nick Diaz, and then Carlos Condit vs. Nick Diaz, and then Georges St. Pierre against Nick Diaz, and then finally, Carlos Condit vs. Nick Diaz, there have been issues after issues with this fight.

Originally, Nick Diaz was pulled from his fight at UFC 137 against GSP because he failed to show up for the media. Condit was put in Diaz’s place, but then GSP hurt himself. Diaz went on to face BJ Penn, beating him up for three rounds. Condit was scheduled to face GSP on this card, but Dana White flipped the script and said that GSP wanted Diaz and he’d get Diaz. Then St. Pierre was hurt again and Condit slid into the mix yet again. If I was Carlos Condit, I’d feel a bit disrespected over this entire thing.

The FGB crew along with Stevie J from Angrymarks, have predictions for this fight, as well as Big Country Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum.

Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum

Alan: Nelson by 1st round TKO
Duan: Werdum by decision
Stevie: Werdum by 2nd round submission
Big D: Nelson by 2nd round TKO
Cactus Jim: Werdum by decision
GG: Werdum by decision

Alan says:

Would love to see these guys go hold for hold on the ground but I think Roy will try to keep this standing where he has the power to finish the Brazilian. I think he does it early too.

Duan says:

I honestly feel Werdum is the most overlooked heavyweight in MMA. The guy snapped the most legendary win streak in the sport’s history and most people barely even took notice – come on! Outside of the big three of Velasquez, Dos Santos and Overeem, he’s probably the division’s next best. Since 08, he has lost only to the UFC heavyweight champion and the current number one contender. That’s not bad company to be keeping.

He will beat Nelson because he’s better. Better in the stand up, better on the ground, just plain and simply better. Big Country is game; he will hang in there, but he will do so with a punchers chance only. Werdum cruises to a 30-27 in a mostly striking battle.

Stevie says:

Werdum is that heavyweight who could be the top guy in the world if he puts it all together, but seems to shoot himself in the foot whenever he’s about to grab the brass ring. Big Country is exactly the kind of guy he needs to beat if he’s going to get a rematch with JDS, who drummed him out of UFC the last time around with an embarrassing first round KO – ironically the win that vaulted Dos Santos to where he is today as champion. I really like Roy Nelson as a person and a fighter, and I’d say people underestimate him a LOT, but I think they underestimate Werdum even more. However – if he can’t beat Big Country, I don’t think we can ever take Werdum seriously as a contender for UFC heavyweight champion ever again. A loss hurts Werdum more than Nelson.

Big D says:

I love Roy. I think Roy is underrated at times. I think when Roy is in shape (don’t laugh) and ready to rumble, he can leap over a lot of heavyweights in both striking and grappling. Werdum is a black hole of charisma who’s legacy will always be as the first guy to knock off Fedor, and that should be ALL he’s left with. Still, the guy’s got way above average ground game. This is a pick-em fight, but I think Roy will use that big right hand and make Werdum lunchmeat.

Cactus Jim says:

I’m not too stoked on this match. I think both guys have suspect cardio and that by the end of the first round this turns into two drunken bar fighters winging haymakers and praying something lands. Occasionally we may see a sloppy takedown attempt that will sometimes pay off only because of the others guys exhaustion. My prediction is that Werdum can land more punches and will use his kicks to outpoint Nelson on the scorecards. There’s potential for each guy to KO the other with an exaggerated bomb, but wouldn’t bet the house on it.

GG says:

All things being equal, Werdum’s jiu-jitsu is much better than anything Nelson can bring to the table. The key is going to be how he can utilize it to win the fight. Werdum’s strategy has been mind-boggling at times. He’s looked awful in fights before. When he can’t goad someone into coming to the ground with him, it seems that he has no back up plan. Nelson is game and he makes up for whatever he lacks in skill and conditioning with a never-say-quit attitude. I just think that if Werdum’s game-plan is at the very least a B-, he beats Big Country. I’m not sure what Big Country can do with him.

Carlos Condit vs. Nick Diaz

Alan: Condit by 2nd round TKO
Duan: Diaz by 3rd round TKO
Stevie: Diaz by 3rd round TKO
Big D: Diaz by 3rd round TKO
Cactus Jim: Diaz by 4th round TKO
GG: Diaz by 4th round TKO

Alan says:

How do you pick this fight? These guys are both so talented in all aspects of the game. Condit’s biggest weakness is wrestlers who can smother him. Diaz is not the guy to do that. I think this will stay on the feet and I think that it could go either way easily but I’m going to say that Carlos hits a punch on the button and swarms all over Diaz for the win.

Duan says:

I don’t believe there’s anybody in the 170 pound division that can stand with Diaz. He’s just become so good at using his length, judging range, drawing shots and picking counters. He will thud away with the jab-straight, but he can mix it up when he needs to – head and body, hooks and uppercuts. This guy has become a real handful.

I just don’t know what the gameplan can be for Condit here, and I’m not selling him short either. Trust me; I know how good Carlos Condit is. Diaz is just all wrong for him. I don’t think Carlos has the physicality to dictate where this fight takes place. He will be bashed up on the feet, and even if he could get it to the floor, I’m not sure he can do much with Diaz there either. Condit will come to fight; I just don’t think it’s a fight he can win

Stevie says:

Diaz is a better all around athlete, not to mention a more accurate striker and world class at jiu-jitsu. He’s also bat shit crazy, but that’s why people like him so much. I’ve always thought of Condit as a great fighter, going back to his WEC days, but the difference between “great” and “elite” is exactly why Nick Diaz will win this fight.

Big D says:

Diaz is going to pulverize Condit. I predict a series of rabid punches which will only get stronger until Condit falls. I don’t think it’ll be easy and I sort of think it may resemble Diaz’s legendary fight with Gomi, but Diaz will win, possibly by sub, but I’m predicting a TKO.

Cactus Jim says:

On paper this should be an amazing fight. Given the history of each of these fighters I would anticipate a hard fought war. I think Diaz’s striking is really going to be the key to his success. His style will likely stymie Condit. Condit’s best bet is to get the fight to the ground and work a submission, but although we don’t see him in that position very often, Diaz is no slouch on the ground. I have no doubt that Condit will be game and engage with Diaz, I just don’t believe he will be able to finish him before Diaz’s shots add up and suck the life out of Carlos. By the 4th round the cumulative damage will leave him slumped in a pile against the cage and we’ll get to hear an awkward post fight rant from Diaz which very well could include him calling GSP a f***** or some such unsavory term to try to build the feud.

GG says:

I’m not sure what else I can say. The guys have said it all. The only thing I can say differently is that I think it’s going to be a blood stoppage. Nick Diaz cuts easily and if he loses, this is how I see him losing. But he cuts everyone he fights too, and when you land more punches than just about anyone in the UFC, it’s going to take a toll on Condit. For three rounds, I think the fight could be up for grabs. But in the championship rounds, I expect Diaz to take it.

We’ll have play by play of the show tomorrow. Enjoy.

]]> http://fightgameblog.com/2012/02/ufc-143-preview-carlos-condit-vs-nick-diaz/feed/ 0 http://fightgameblog.com/2012/01/2012-royal-rumble-preview-part-4-match-by-match-preview/ http://fightgameblog.com/2012/01/2012-royal-rumble-preview-part-4-match-by-match-preview/#comments Sun, 29 Jan 2012 06:34:52 +0000 djac http://fightgameblog.com/?p=10646 And now the time of year where everything gets put on hold for one Pay Per View. An event I have watched many more times than any number of the WWE WrestleManias.

I’m talking the Royal Rumble. Two men enter the ring, and approximately two minutes later somebody else comes in. If you get tossed over the top rope and BOTH of your feet touch the floor, you’re eliminated. After 30 people (man, woman, rooster, tugboat, or mantaur) have entered the ring, the last person with both feet solidly in the ring gets a promise of a title shot at WrestleMania.

The Royal Rumble match itself usually lasts over an hour long, and has a cavalcade of gimmicks, feuds, and moments all rolled into one. If you haven’t yet, be sure to check out FGB’s Royal Rumble Preview, of our writer’s Favourite Moments, Most Surprising Moments, and our pick for who’s going to win.

The 2012 Royal Rumble has a surprisingly strong undercard, with both the WWE and World Heavyweight Title being defended. Also John Cena will face off against “The Prophet of Hate” Kane in a match not unlike Professor Moriarty trying to convince Sherlock Holmes to join him, so they can rule London together. Because we’re all tired of the Star Wars references.

Oh, and I’m sure there’ll be a few other undercard matches that haven’t been announced yet.

Let’s run down this sucker match by match.

1. Random undercard match. Let’s say, I don’t know, Tag Team Champs Primo and Epico (WITH ROSA MENDEZ. THAT’S ROSA MENDEZ. DON’T FORGET ABOUT HER!) vs. The Uso’s, who will not try to blow themselves up with their entrance.

The Uso’s are the only “face” tag team in the WWE right now, as the tag team division is once again at a very low point. As a huge proponent of tag teams, I’m amazed the WWE isn’t using their wrestlers on Superstars or NXT as tag teams, even putting a veteran together with an up-and-coming rookie. But I digress. Primo and Epico are a no-name team that most people would probably confuse with Hunico and Camacho, wondering why they’re not riding out on their pimped-up bike. Anyways, the WWE is pushing the once-Beth Phoenix stalker Rosa Mendez as the star of the tag team, with her gyrating hips and other Spanish overtones. The Uso’s, as mentioned, are getting a shot because they’re like Logan Couture or Phil Kessel being picked last in the NHL All-Star team draft the last few years… they’re the only ones left.

WHO SHOULD WIN THIS MATCH THAT MAY OR MAY NOT HAPPEN: If this match does happen, Team Mendez will find a way to win for the reasons listed above.

WHO WILL WIN THIS MATCH THAT MAY OR MAY NOT HAPPEN: Team Mendez. Although I am dubious about this match coming on first, if it happens, as they may need to have it before the main event to give everybody a bathroom break.

2. John Cena vs. Kane

Inexplicably, this feud has started and continues, with Kane trying to get Cena to turn to the Dark Side. Cena is on his way to facing The Rock at Mania, and this stopgap of a feud is to what? Make the Miami fans boo him more than before? In the past few weeks, Kane has been getting deeper and deeper under Cena’s skin, making for some cringingly cheesy television. What has Kane to gain from this feud? If he wins the match, where does he go? A heel back to Smackdown to feud with the heel Mark Henry, who injured him in the first place?

WHO SHOULD WIN: John Cena, rising above the hate, facing down all his inner demons, having thrown down his lightsabre and refusing to strike down Darth Vader in front of the Emperor. Then somebody, let’s say Curt Hawkins (Zack Ryder’s former tag team partner), saves Cena from the lightening shooting from Kane’s hands, by throwing Kane down into an abyss. Of course, that will lead to a clone of Kane returning in the future, turning Cena to the Dark Side, with only the love of his friends being able to save him. What?

WHO WILL WIN: I have an inkling Kane will pull out a win here, as not to hurt him. He’s back with his mask and hair, he’s a big bad mofo, and he can’t afford to be knocked down a peg. Well, at least that’s the idea. I can see this match going into storyline mode where it doesn’t matter who ins in the first place.

3. WWE Champion CM Punk vs. Dolph Ziggler, with “Big Johnny” Laurinaitis as the special guest referee. Vickie Guerrero and Jack Swagger are banned from ringside due to referee incompetence.

So it’s come to this. CM Punk vs. the future of the WWE in Dolph Ziggler. In what should be a match focused strictly on wrestling ability, we have — once again — an authority figure who wants to take the title away from the champion. Because that storyline never gets old. Punk has held the title since November 20, after the WWE CHAMPIONSHIP BELT changed hands 8 times last year. EIGHT TIMES.

Ziggler is a future champion, needless to say, but hasn’t been given the chance to shine recently. His recent big wins, have come at the help of the “well meaning” Laurinaitis. Although Ziggler’s pinned Punk in recent weeks, he hasn’t looked like the man who deserved a title shot.

Most of the time, unless Daniel Bryan is on the card, Ziggler is going to have the best match of the night. If given enough time, and limiting shenanigans from Laurenaitis, this should be a good match. So yeah, at least the match will hopefully get some time.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Triple H fans, as Poochie returns to the camera to chew out Big Johnny. Oh, and CM Punk will probably pull out a win. But who cares about that? Poochie is returning to save us all! Okay, seriously, Punk got part one of his revenge against Laurinaitis by hitting his GTS on him on last week’s RAW.

WHO WILL WIN: CM Punk, with Dolph Ziggler’s credibility hopefully coming in a close second. However, with the return of Chris Jericho and his jacket, he’s promising an REM song at the Rumble. And that REM song, also covered by Newfoundland’s Great Big Sea, he could be referring to Punk, who’s calling himself the best wrestler in the world. It turns out that Jericho is the best in the world at what he does… and what he does now is wrestling.

4. World Heavyweight Champion Daniel Bryan vs. Mark Henry vs. Big Show – Triple Threat Steel Cage match

In one of the most interesting storylines in the WWE today, the undeserving (but capable) champion Daniel Bryan will get his… uh… his comeuppance as he’s trapped in a cage with two huge men? Somehow it doesn’t look right when you read that sentence, but the Bryan character has made it work. He’s been a jerk, and ego maniac, and he made the Big Show cry. He made him cry! He even made the injured (shhh) Mark Henry “run” after him. What a jerk!

And now he’s stuck in stuck in a steel cage with these two monsters. Bryan has made his gradual heel turn work so well, we’re looking forward to seeing him get squashed. However, we then run into a Catch-22 situation. We want to see the Daniel Bryan character get his, but we don’t want to see him lose the title. If he loses to Big Show, then we’ll have some more big man matches down the road. If he loses to Henry, there’s a chance Young Randall Orton (shout-out to GG) will go on to get his win back against Henry… and I’m getting ahead of myself.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Young Daniel Bryan. His character is the freshest thing on Smackdown right now, and will be able to get a good match out of anybody, literally.

WHO WILL WIN: Unlike the Punk match, the result of this match is still a bit of a head-scratcher. Will the WWE realize what they have in Bryan and keep the title on him, or put the title on the bigger man? If Henry wins, it may come down to Randy Orton getting his revenge at WrestleMania. I’ll still pick Bryan here.

5. 30-Man Royal Rumble Match – Winner receives his choice of a WWE Championship or World Heavyweight Championship match at WrestleMania XXVIII, meaning Santino will once again, not win. Neither will anybody else whom the WWE doesn’t think belongs in the WrestleMania title match.

Participants: WWE has announced that, for the first time, “Every WWE superstar is eligible to compete in the Rumble match.” Which doesn’t mean that much. We do know, however, that Miz will be the #1 participant after losing to R-Truth on RAW last week. Otherwise, I haven’t seen any hints on who’s going to be returning.

As I mentioned previously, the Royal Rumble is my favourite match of the year, even though it doesn’t make sense for the WWE to give away a title shot. Of the 30 names, there’s only about three or four men who could possibly win, which in turn takes away part of the fun of the entire hour-long match.

This year is no different. We’re expecting the return of Randy Orton, who is a favourite to win. Why? Because he’s a big guy who won’t be going over the top easily? No. Because he’s just so good? No, not really. Because the Royal Rumble is in his home town? We’re getting closer. Because he’s one of the top stars who will probably get a title shot at WrestleMania due to his name and history? Ding ding!

Anyways, I digress. The best Rumbles were the ones in which the winner was a surprise. Rey Mysterio in 2006. ___________ (name retracted) in 2004. Even Undertaker in 2007, which probably had the best ending of any Rumble not featuring Ric Flair winning in 1992, as Taker finally eliminated Shawn Michaels to win.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Here’s what I wrote earlier: I’d like to see somebody like Sheamus win, as he’s been getting a good push. But I can’t see him facing either Punk or Bryan (if either of them are still champion) at Mania. Jericho is presumably going to be involved in the Punk/Ziggler match, causing them to eliminate each other in the Rumble match itself. I presume Orton will probably win, but as a fan I hope not. I’d also like to see Daniel Bryan win it, so he can challenge Punk in an effort to unify the titles (if he survives the cage match). Hell, Rock could be a surprise entrant and win.

WHO WILL WIN: (Check FGB’s predictions at http://fightgameblog.com/2012/01/2012-royal-rumble-preview-part-3/)

Fight Game Blog predicts either Chris Jericho or Randy Orton are going to win this year’s Rumble. Whereas neither would be a surprise, the idea of Jericho winning without having to do anything would have made for an ingenious spot at the Rumble.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR:
- Another spin-a-roonie?
- Dusty’s boys going at it
- Brodus Clay stealing the show
- Chris Jericho’s entrance taking over two minutes
- Random celebrity / oldtimer appearance who may be a former Rumble winner
- At least 4-5 minutes of “Who is that? No wait, who’s THAT?” as guys from NXT and Superstars make appearances
- A misunderstanding between Dolph Ziggler and Jack Swagger
- Young Randall Orton exacting some revenge on Wade Barrett
- SOCKO
- The world will end (re: Chris Jericho)

FINAL THOUGHTS

FIVE! FOUR! THREE! TWO! ONE!

BZZZZT!

Here’s hoping the Rumble will have each wrestler come out every two minutes and not 90 seconds as in random previous years. This is the kind of match I don’t want to end.

However, this card is strong even without the Rumble, as both title matches should be ones to go out of your way to see.

Now go watch the show with some friends, and make sure you do your Rumble drawings. I came THIS close to winning last year as I drew Santino Marella.

I’m sure this year I’ll probably get Hornswaggle.

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