Rampage Jackson may have been a bigger underdog in a Pride fight that I’m not aware of. But he’s never been this big of an underdog before in the UFC. The light heavyweight champion Jon Jones is a 6-1 or 7-1 favorite depending on the time and day. Is Jones that good? Most think he is even if they agree that the odds are way long. Rampage Jackson has never been knocked out or submitted in his UFC career. If Jones can finish him, it would add another link to his growing legend.

We’ll talk about that fight as well as the semi-main even which is Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck. Koscheck hasn’t fought since his loss against Georges St. Pierre in December of last year. He replaces Diego Sanchez in the fight.

The FGB crew along with Stevie J from Angry Marks and friend of the site JP, have predictions on the fights.

Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck

Duan: Koscheck by 1st round TKO
Alan: Koscheck by decision
JP: Koscheck by decision
Stevie J: Hughes by 1st round submission
Big D: Koscheck by 2nd round TKO
GG: Koscheck by 2nd round TKO

Duan says:

My opinion on Hughes has seesawed a lot over the last couple of years. Sometimes I see him as a completely spent force, while on other occasions I still admire his veteran savvy. He’s nowhere near the fighter he once was, but his knowledge of the game is such that he can still beat guys up to a certain level.

The trouble here is Koscheck is couple a steps above that standard, and besides, it’s a horrible match up for Hughes anyway. Josh is a guy Hughes won’t out-wrestle and he will have a massive advantage in the stand up.

Alan says:

Matt Hughes is one of the most mentally strong fighters in MMA, and there is a possibility that Kos may have just had his confidence shaken by the beating GSP gave him. What happens if Hughes dings him with one? Will Kos fold? It’s an interesting question. But I have to err on the side of Koscheck rebounding here and getting back on track. He’ll probably take a cautious approach though so I will say Koscheck by decision.

JP says:

This should be a retirement fight for Matt Hughes. The man who helped build the welterweight division and indeed is a pillar of the UFC is now a little long in the tooth and should move into a coaching role. He faces an opponent in Koscheck who is younger, more well rounded, a better wrestler and simply better. Hughes’ only hope is that Koscheck was so demoralized by GSP that he comes in flat and weak minded. I think it is far more likely that Hughes is on the losing end of numerous takedowns and consistent ground and pound as Koscheck drags it out to a boring but clear decision victory.

Stevie J says:

On paper Josh Koscheck has a few advantages, chief among them the simple fact his body hasn’t been worn down by the years of grueling competition that Hughes’ has. On the other hand the last time people counted Hughes out he won three straight fights over tough opponents before finally running into a KO at the hands of BJ Penn. With largely equivalent wrestling skills, I believe the veteran experience for Hughes will be an asset and not a detriment in this fight, and I look for him to surprise people by catching Koscheck in a first round submission.

Big D says:

Much like Quinton, Hughes best days are far and away behind him. I’d like to say this will be a great grappling match with two high caliber wrestlers, but it won’t be, because Josh will rock Matt in the 2nd round and possibly send him into retirement.

GG says:

I think the only reason to go with Hughes here is if you have any reason to believe that Koscheck isn’t 100% healthy after his eye injury. Koscheck is younger and faster and is the better boxer. I would love to see Hughes beat Koscheck here. I just think Koscheck is too fast and eventually hits Hughes on the button in the second round.

Rampage Jackson vs. Jon Jones

Duan: Jones by decision (shutout)
Alan: Jones by 2nd round TKO
JP: Jones by 1st round TKO
Stevie J: Jones by 1st round TKO
Big D: Jones by 2nd round TKO
GG: Jones by 3rd round TKO

Duan says:

I haven’t been impressed with Jackson lately. He should probably think of himself fortunate to get this opportunity because I felt he clearly lost to Machida, so he could just as easily be 1-2 in his last three fights, with the lone win being a pretty uninspiring decision over Matt Hamill.

You can say styles make fights, but there is very little in the Rampage form line that suggests he can cause major problems for Jones. I guess you could give him a punchers chance at catching the still inexperienced champion, but in truth Jackson hasn’t exactly been starching recent opponents either. His last KO came five fights ago against the thoroughly shot Wanderlei Silva. Jones dominates this one.

Jones by shut out.

Alan says:

Rampage may not always put on the best performance but he’s a hard man to just walk through. This is by no means a gimmie fight for Jon Jones. That said, I see him winning. Quinton rarely comes into a fight with a great game plan, and I think Greg Jackson will have exactly that for Jones. I see him using leg kicks, which we know Rampage hates, from a distance and pouncing to deliver a finishing blow. Jones will play this one carefully but he’ll still win by the 2nd round.

JP says:

Rampage sort of backed into this title shot via a gift of a decision over Machida and then beating up on a replacement opponent in Matt Hamill. But regardless of his path to the octagon, Jackson must now square off with ‘Bones’ Jones, perhaps the most talented fighter in the game today. Jones mixes freak athleticism with creativity, youth, great coaching, and excellent work ethic. Rampage frankly lacks much of that; his work ethic is notoriously lacking, he has become methodical in his striking, lacks great coaching and the power he was once known for. All of this places Rampage at a significant disadvantage against the young champion. Unless he can rediscover the KO power that seems to have disappeared over the last three years, he is in for a severe beating at the hands of Bones. I expect Jon Jones to take him down in the first round, advance position against Rampage’s weak ground game, and elbow him until the ref shows mercy. On to Rashad.

Stevie J says:

My new nickname for Jones is “The Whirling Dervish.” He moves so quick you can’t see the blow coming, and his limbs are so long and lanky he touches opponents with strikes that probably shouldn’t work in real fights. Naysayers think he’s cocky and a show-off. Fans think he’s one of the most dynamic strikers to hit the Octagon in years, and they love that he finishes fights. Rampage used to be Jones – a bigger more muscular version but all the same he used to be that dynamic striker who finished fights. Now he decisions fights. That’s probably better for his health and career longevity, but it won’t help him against Jones. He’s going to outquick and outstrike Rampage, and unless Jones makes a huge mistake and Jackson lands one really hard shot to the head, Jones should take this fight handily – probably by first round TKO.

Big D says:

Rampage doesn’t know what he’s dealing with here. His best days are long behind him and he’s been a very lackluster fighter recently who never quite evolved. Jonny Bones Jones is the DEFINITION of evolution – evolution of styles, evolution of athleticism, evolution of the sport. Rampage had his hands full with Shogun ages ago, a man Jones dismantled faster than anybody. Jones will dispatch of Rampage quickly and move on to Rashad, another man who he will surely destroy.

GG says:

Rarely when Rampage fights, do people come forward against him. He usually has to stalk them. Generally, he’s patient, though, he’s susceptible to strikes from the outside, including leg kicks. I think Jon Jones wins this fight, and possibly finishes Rampage by submission or knockout, as long as he isn’t over aggressive. He has to be smartly aggressive. Rampage has one-shot knockout power and he can definitely hit Jones harder than he’s been hit. But if Jones stays on the outside early and lets Rampage tire, I think he’ll get him near the end of the third round.

There you have it. We’ll have live play-by-play of the card on the site tomorrow.

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