If I can describe the enthusiasm for this show by the feedback I’ve received so far, I think I would use the word, “meh”. When Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar was called off and Matt Hamill vs. Rampage Jackson was put into the main event it signified that the UFC couldn’t replace the main event and fans who already bought tickets for the show (like me) and those who wanted to buy it on PPV were just going to have to deal without a true marquee match. Hopefully the stuff underneath, which could range from pretty decent to pretty good, leans toward the good side.

The FGB crew (even Big D), along with Stevie J from Angry Marks, and friend of the site JP, have predictions ready for not only the main event, but for Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson as well.

Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson

Duan: Nelson by 1st round TKO
Alan: Nelson by 2nd round TKO
Stevie J: Mir by decision
JP: Mir by decision
Big D: Nelson by 2nd round TKO
Cactus Jim: Nelson by 3rd round TKO
GG: Nelson by decision

Duan says:

Frank Mir has done a good job of proving me wrong recently, but I still refuse to believe this guy is amongst the sport’s elite. His wins have come against fighters on the downward slide and when he has stepped up from that level he has been demolished.

It’s no slight at Nelson when I say he is not in the heavyweight division’s A class. He’s a real fighter and a very tough guy, I just feel he will always fall short at championship level. I do however believe he has enough to comfortably handle Mir. Nelson is not the type of man to crumble. If Mir is forced to slug with Big Country (which i think he will be) this won’t go long.

Alan says:

As Duan said, Mir has not been proving himself against fighters in their prime. Nelson, while not able to hang when matched up with Junior Dos Santos, has shown that he can beat good young fighters. He’s a legitimate guy in every aspect of the game, and he has a great attitude. I don’t see him ever getting nervous or antsy or anything like that. He’s a calm, relaxed dude and he fights like it. Mir is more likely to spaz out when things aren’t going his way. I see Roy getting inside and knocking Frank into next week.

Stevie J says:

They know each other too well as grapplers so it’s probably going to be a 15 minute boxing match. Mir outpoints him due to size and reach. If it got to the ground I’d favor Big Country but I’m not over-confident that it will.

JP says:

Roy Nelson is an interesting character. About as unimpressive physically as any fighter, he possess an astonishing skill set. He could be a championship caliber fighter if he was able to get down to 205 but at heavyweight he is just naturally outmatched by the true elite of the division. Nelson is a great test for prospects to see where they stand in the division but against a veteran like Mir, I suspect Nelson will fall short. As former training partners, both of these guys should be able to put together a reasonable gameplan. Mir doesn’t need to sweat the takedown too much against Nelson and should be able to wear down his athletically inferior opponent much the same way Junior Dos Santos and Andrei Arlovski did before. I’m looking for Mir to dictate the fight for three rounds en route to a clear 30-27 win.

Big D says:

I was really expecting a little bit better build here, perhaps Sonnen-esque. Nelson is a beast. Frank hasn’t really looked great since beating a very old-looking Big Nog 3 years ago. I would honestly like to see these guys grapple a lot, since they are both BJJ kings, but I don’t think we’ll see that much of it. I think Nelson lays him out.

Cactus Jim says:

I thought I would be the odd man out in the Mir/Nelson fight, but having previewed Duan and Alan’s predictions, I see we’re in agreement that Nelson should be able to finish Mir. I see a battle of two Bubba’s trying to knock the other guys head into the second row. My opinion is that the chin and the power favor Big Country in that type of exchange so my pick is Nelson via TKO in the 3rd after Mir gets tired and sloppy.

GG says:

On the latest FGB Radio, I said that I thought Nelson would finish Mir, but I have changed my tune a bit. I think, much like most others here, the fight stays on the feet. In a boxing match, Mir’s lumbering style can make for a really frustrating fight, much like his fight with Cro Cop. I have a feeling Nelson will be doing a lot of reaching and lunging to hit Mir. The key here I believe is simply stamina. Mir seems to get really tired as the fight goes on, while the bulbous Nelson seems to have a much better motor. I think Nelson takes the last two rounds to win a decision.

Matt Hamill vs. Rampage Jackson

Duan: Jackson by 2nd round TKO
Alan: Jackson by decision
Stevie J: Jackson by 1st round TKO
JP: Jackson by decision
Big D: Hamill by decison
Cactus Jim Jackson by decision
GG: Jackson by 3rd round TKO

Duan says:

At this point there may be more upside to Hamill as the older but fresher fighter. Jackson is the more shop worn of the two and it’s really been a while since Rampage actually impressed me. He hasn’t looked good in any of his past three fights. I would say he’s days a headline act are nearing a close. However, this on paper looks like I good match up for him.

I don’t see either man successfully grounding their opponent for any significant length, and in a boxing match, I favour the more hard hitting and experienced Jackson. Hamill’s defensive frailties are often redeemed by his granite chin. That’s just not a game you can afford to play with somebody as devastating with one shot as Rampage.

Alan says:

I see the wrestling being neutralised in this on. Both guys are good enough to avoid being manhandled. So it will most likely be a standing battle, and Rampage’s crisper, more dynamic striking will most likely win out over Hamill’s sluggish haymaker style. Rampage mostly struggles with things like leg kicks and craftiness – these are not strengths of Hamill. The one disagreement I have with Duan is that I think Hamill will actually survive without being KO’d.

Stevie J says:

A one-sided one round ass beating. Rampage takes him down and hammerfists him ’til the ref steps in for the TKO.

JP says:

What was supposed to be the co-main event to an epic trilogy between Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard now becomes the headliner on a wounded UFC 130 card. Rampage is coming off a surprise victory over Lyoto Machida and seems to be in headlines more for his fading interest in MMA. Matt Hamill is coming off showing everyone just how far Tito Ortiz has fallen. Rampage’s original opponent Thiago Silva was a far more interesting matchup but Hamill is a tough guy who won’t go quietly. I think Rampage’s power is overrated at this point and do not think he can put Hamill away. But unless Rampage has truly let his wrestling slip, he should be able to keep this fight standing and use his brute style to score a decision.

Big D says:

I’m done with Rampage. He no longer excites me. But seriously, during the PRIDE days and his early UFC days, I used to get very excited over Rampage fights. Since then, he’s somewhat become boring. His Rashad feud was great, but the fight was underwhelming. Machida was ehh okay, a fight (I think) he lost. Hamill was another guy who was at his most interesting a few years back. This was a poor choice for a main event (I would’ve gone with Mir/Nelson to close), but I guess they assumed Rampage was a bigger star due to TUF. My prediction: Hamill gets the decision, because Rampage is shot.

Cactus Jim says:

This is one of those cards that I wish I was watching with friends so that I didn’t have to bear the cost of the PPV. However, as Duan will most likely point out, I have more money than common sense so I will pony up the cash and hope like hell that the card turns out better than it looks on paper. In the main event, I think Rampage’s experience and better striking will help him take a decision against Matt Hamill. As already stated, Rampage has looked less than impressive in his last few outings, but I think he has enough to outlast and outscore Hamill.

GG says:

I think that the longer this fight goes, the better shot Hamill has. I don’t think he can put Rampage away, but if he’s able to outlast Rampage and tire him, he has a legit shot to take the decision. I just don’t think Hamill will be able to be disciplined enough to do what Rashad did to Rampage. Rashad made him wait. He didn’t give Rampage a chance to do what he loves to do, which is throw inside counter right-hands. Eventually, Hamill’s will to be in a slugfest will be his downfall and Rampage will get to him and stop him. I say it happens late in the fight.

I’ll be live in Las Vegas this weekend covering UFC 130. I’ll be covering the undercard on our FGB Facebook page and Twitter account @fightgameblog. Then, I’ll blog the main card right here on the site.

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