The UFC is promoting this as the biggest heavyweight bout in history. Dana White has stated that there hasn’t been a heavyweight match-up like this in boxing or MMA in a long time. On Saturday, we’ll see who walks away with the UFC Heavyweight championship. Will it be Brock Lesnar or Shane Carwin?

We have a great panel consisting of members of the MMA media and hardcore MMA fans who shared their thoughts with me about the big fight.

Here is the panel:

Kevin Iole – Kevin writes for Yahoo! Sports and is one of the few writers who writes as equally well about boxing as he does about MMA. Read him by clicking his Yahoo! Sports page. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @KevinI as well.
Todd Martin – Todd writes for Sherdog and also authors the weekly WWE Raw Report at F4Wonline/Wrestling Observer.
Oliver Copp – Oliver is one of the two hosts of the MMA audio show Tough Talk at F4Wonline/Wrestling Observer. You can also find him on Facebook and Twitter.
Mike Sawyer – Mike is the second of the two hosts of the MMA audio show Tough Talk at F4Wonline/Wrestling Observer.
Peachmachine – Captain of Team Viggity, which he calls “The finest body re-composition plan available”. You can follow Team Viggity on Twitter as well.
Derek Wizzle – DWizzle is a freelance MMA writer who also does video work. You can find him at his blog DWizzlesWorld.
Stevie J – Stevie J runs Angrymarks.com and is a good friend of the site.
JP – JP is a great contributor to the site and also writes at We Are SC.
Peter H. – Peter is a frequent contributor to Angrymarks.com.
RFrederick – RFrederick is a member of THE BOARD~! at F4Wonline/Wrestling Observer.
DocG – DocG is also a member of THE BOARD~! at F4Wonline/Wrestling Observer.
Duan Greally – Duan is a writer for Fight Game Blog.
Alan Counihan – Alan is a writer for Fight Game Blog.
Cactus Jim – Jim is a writer for Fight Game Blog.
GG – That would be me, editor of Fight Game Blog.

Kevin Iole – Carwin by 1st round TKO

This is a very evenly matched fight and I think the best prediction is one that says the first man who hits the other cleanly on the chin will win. Carwin has advantages standing and in the clinch and I think he’ll be able to exploit those. His power is surreal and I think it will carry him to the title.

Todd Martin – Carwin by 1st or 2nd round TKO

There are so many question marks in this fight, but I worry most about Lesnar’s health recovery. I think Carwin will be able to combat Lesnar’s wrestling enough to get some shots in, and he hits as hard as anyone in the sport.

Oliver Copp – Lesnar by 2nd round TKO

It’s been a long time since there has been a world title match with so many question marks. Is Brock Lesnar really 100 percent? How will his style adapt to his new, leaner body? Will he be able to push Shane Carwin around? To me, Carwin has a puncher’s chance but not much more. Brock is a better wrestler on paper and definitely more experienced in using his mass to neutralize opponents. Lesnar brought in Randy Couture specifically because he was still freaked out by how Couture was able to get out from under him with no trouble whatsoever. They have worked diligently on closing that hole in Lesnar’s game. The big question is how Brock responds to being hit. He didn’t like Randy Couture opening a cut on him – at all. How will he cope with being hit hard for the very first time in his MMA career? That said, hitting hard seems to be the only thing we’ve seen from Shane Carwin. Is he a mastermind on the ground? Possibly. But we haven’t seen any of it, so it really isn’t possible to judge the fight on it. Based on what we’ve seen from both fighters, there is no doubt in my mind Brock Lesnar’s hand will be raised in the end.

Mike Sawyer – Carwin by 1st round TKO

I’m pulling for Lesnar, but I have a bad feeling about this fight. The scrambles will decide it. If Shane can defend Brock’s takedowns long enough and keep the fight inside then his chances to win increase. I want to believe Brock can take him down, hold him there and beat him up. I don’t think he can though.

Peachmachine – Lesnar by 1st round TKO

You can’t stop the phenomenal athleticism of Lesnar. He trains harder than anyone, save GSP. Wrestling will cancel, striking will cancel, jits is a non issue, so it all comes down to killer instinct and sheer ability. Brock will truck this mofo.

Derek Wizzle – Carwin by 1st round TKO

Carwin has very impressive power in his hands and Brock has had a long layoff so he will have cage rust. It will be nice to see Brock return to the cage and fight after overcoming some serious health issues, but he will lose his title Saturday night.

Stevie J – Lesnar by 3rd round TKO

I can’t help but hear Gorilla Monsoon in my head scream that titans are colliding. Lesnar is almost too big for the heavyweight division, and anybody who doubts Carwin has to only look at his record: 12-0 with 12 first round finishes. They are beasts. They are juggernauts. Quite frankly they are the monsters of MMA. Who is going to stop either one? Oh wait – now they have to stop each OTHER. In terms of momentum Carwin has the edge coming off big wins over Gonzaga and Mir. In terms of motivation though Lesnar has the edge given he has to prove he’s for real after a whole year layoff and a near career ending illness. As brilliant as Carwin has looked in his run up to title, Lesnar looked just as dominant smashing Couture and Mir in his last two fights before being forced to take time off. So what gives – the irresistible force or the immovable object? I vote Brock Lesnar by ground and pound in the third round. I think both fighters will be wary of each other early, feel each other out in the second, but by the third Lesnar’s going to be pissed off and rush Carwin the second he lets up his guard, and Lesnar is big enough, strong enough, and amateur wrestler enough to take a guy his size to the mat. Carwin is great and will continue to be great but I’m not convinced Saturday is his night – but then again I didn’t think it was Werdum’s night last Saturday either.

JP – Carwin by 3rd round TKO

I had a really difficult time picking the winner of this fight. Since both are such rare athletes in the fight game, there is almost nothing for me to base an opinion on. Brock hasn’t fought in a year and only has 5 career fights. None of those 5 fights were against someone of Carwin’s size or power. Carwin has 11 fights but none of those fights were against an athlete on the same level as Brock Lesnar. So for me, it comes down to what I think each guy is capable of.

Brock is the superior athlete, a better wrestler, and actually has second and third round experience. Carwin has more power in my opinion. And I think that is what this fight will come down to. Brock is powerful but he can’t put someone out like Carwin can. Against Couture and Mir, Brock hammered both of them until the ref stopped it but both guys were conscious. When Carwin fought Mir, he put Mir’s lights out. He has that one punch knock out power that Lesnar has yet to display, and I think over the course of 5 rounds, that will be the difference. I am expecting this fight to be rough and violent, but I think Carwin will catch Brock with superior stand up skills and put the big guy down in the third. Then we can all watch to see if Brock loses his mind after losing .

Peter H. – Lesnar by 2nd round TKO

You can hear Peter’s full prediction on the Angry Marks Podcast we did together.

RFrederick – Lesnar by 3rd round TKO

I’ve been rattling my brain for 9 months over this. Both guys have seemed to be better fighters each time they’ve stepped into the octagon. Everyone talks about Carwin’s power, and he has ridiculous power, and we’ve never seen Brock truly hit so we have no clue how well he takes a solid punch. I think Brock is a better wrestler, but we haven’t seen that part of Carwin’s game aside from when Gabriel Gonzaga had him down, and Carwin got right back up and knocked him out. But Gonzaga can’t even begin to be compared to Lesnar. I think these guys are so evenly matched that it’s really hard to predict what’s going to happen. I think in the end it’s gonna come down to this. I believe that Lesnar’s illness has lit a fire in him that nothing else could. I think he’s going to be out to prove to the entire world that you could be looking at something that could kill you, and to be motivated to come back from that, he’s going to do whatever it takes to prove that he’s the best heavyweight in the world, and I think that motivation is going to help him find a way to win. I think it’s going to start out as a slugfest at first, then turn into a wrestling match, where I think Lesnar will end up doing to Carwin what he did to Frank Mir, though maybe not as brutal, but to the point where Josh Rosenthal will be forced to stop it.

DocG – Lesnar by decision

I think that Brock will win a 5 round decision.

Duan Greally – Carwin by 2nd round TKO

I think this will ultimately come down to a shoot out. The wrestling will be a wash. When you have two guys that are that strong and that credentialed, they just have to cancel each other out. Both guys’ stand-up is hideous from a technical stand point, but who cares about technique when you have that type of power?

I have to give to edge to Carwin in that regard. Brock has had a surprising amount of success on the feet thus far. I say surprising because I have really never seen someone look quite so uncomfortable and unnatural as he does. There’s a slight more fluidity to Carwin’s work. But the defining factor here for me is the chin. Carwin has shook off big shots in the past, Brock still remains untested. I generally go with the known quantity in situations like this.

Alan Counihan – Lesnar by decision

Many issues to look at in this fight. First off we have Brock’s illness. There are two ways this can be looked at. The conventional way is that Brock’s been out for so long and has had to deal with all this horrible stuff and it may have taken a toll on him and he may not be as strong and as good as he was when he was destroying Herring, Couture and Mir. There is definitely a case to be made for this. However there’s another side to the coin that hasn’t been getting much talk (and I’ll give Mike Coughlin full credit for being the first I heard talk about it) – Brock’s illness is one that is slow burning. It develops and then gets worse and worse over the LONG TERM until finally it gets you so bad that it can’t be cast aside. Brock got to this point with it last October. Thus it would be reasonable to believe that he may have been worn down by it for months if not years prior. Brock may have had this chipping away at him since he started in the UFC, so we may have yet to see Brock at 100% (scary prospect). He may only now be finally getting close to that. It’s an interesting thing.

The next thing is the wrestling factor. Brock’s a D1 guy, Shane’s a D2 guy. Brock has been touting about how superior this makes him, and Shane’s been defending the standard of his background. I’m not going to pretend to be knowledgable enough about US collegiate wrestling to be able to give an informed opinion on the matter. I will say though that inside the octagon it’s Brock’s wrestling that’s blown me away more. Duan noted to me that he had problems with Couture but really I think it was only one exchange where Brock got sloppy and Randy made a nice escape. Every other moment of Brock’s wrestling I’ve seen has been scary good. Carwin’s has looked good but not anything more special than your average good wrestler in MMA. I can see Brock taking the referees position he had in the Herring fight and holding Shane there without any danger (Carwin’s not busting out a reverse kimura or a rolling leg lock).

Finally we have the striking. I agree with Duan that we’ve seen Carwin get hit and survive (by heavy handed Big Gabe Gonzaga no less). However people keep saying we haven’t seen the same from Brock. We have. Mir NAILED him with a huge knee right on the button and Brock was dazed (like Carwin) but his instincts took over and he put the man on the mat and recovered, finishing the fight shortly thereafter (again like Carwin). So I think we’re dealing with two guys with brick lunchboxes for fists and very solid chins. If this stays standing (I don’t think it will) then it could be either man’s fight.

All that said, I’m going Brock. I’m thinking he grinds out a 5 round decision actually. If Carwin gasses (remember he’s never been out of the 1st round) then Brock may take the initiative to finish, but I don’t see it. I think it’ll be safety first and a somewhat boring (but still exciting in the usual Brock way) decision.

Cactus Jim – Lesnar by 2nd round TKO

I have a feeling this one will come down to a bit of luck in addition to skill. The reason I’m taking Lesnar is because I’ve never really seen how good his chin is. Not a very good reason, right? Well, I have seen Carwin get wobbled so I know his beard isn’t impenetrable. Go with what you know. If Brock has worked on improving his striking on the ground and can avoid a big punch from Carwin, he should take it. That said, both guys have the power to put the other out so I guess we’ll just wait to see who lands the first big shot.

GG – Lesnar by way of 2nd round TKO

I think this fight can end at any time, and because of that, Lesnar will use his wrestling and go for takedown after takedown. I think whoever gets tired first will lose and we’ve seen Lesnar go three rounds before, but not Carwin. I see Lesnar getting Carwin down late in the 2nd and then just using his weight to hold him down and win by ground and pound.

Out of our panel of fifteen, nine of us think Lesnar is keeping his title, while six think that Carwin takes his belt.

Thanks to everyone on our panel for their prediction and we’ll be back here Saturday night covering the big fight.

Trackback URI | Comments RSS