It’s preview time again at FGB. It feels like just last week when we did this last. Wait, it was.

With UFC 105 just one week ago, I have the “there’s too much stuff going on” feeling. I’m intrigued about a couple of fights on this card, but I’m not all that hyped for this one. Some of that has to do with the injuries and illnesses suffered by fighters which has killed off some money fights. But with Strikeforce and the UFC running so many shows, you don’t really get a chance to miss MMA.

But that doesn’t stop us. All of the crew is here with predictions, including Stevie J from AngryMarks, on the top two fights on this card. And away we go.

Anthony Johnson vs. Josh Koscheck

Big D: Johnson by 2nd round TKO
Duan: Koscheck by 2nd round submission
Alan: Koscheck by 2nd round submission
Stevie J: Koscheck by decision
Jim: Johnson by 2nd round TKO
GG: Johnson by 3rd round TKO

Big D says:

I am VERY interested in this fight. These two guys are eerily parallel to each other – great wrestlers who hit pretty damn hard who are probably two of the best pure athletes in the sport. We could see a true classic here. If I was a betting man though, I’d say Rumble Johnson is slightly stronger than Kos and earns the knockout in the 2nd round.

Duan says:

Provided that Johnson makes weight, I see Koscheck taking this one. When Josh goes in there with the right mentality, he is UFC’s best welterweight outside of George St. Pierre. I believe Johnson is in over his head here. Koscheck will take the fight to the floor, and dominate from there.

Alan says:

VERRRY interested in this one though. Comparable dudes in alot of ways. I think Koscheck wins by more wily and being a veteran. Not a GRIZZLED veteran (sup Dan Severn) but a veteran nonetheless. Johnson’s time will come though.

Stevie J says:

Johnson has been on a bit of a roll in his last three fights, and I don’t want to take anything away from a guy who has won in such entertaining fashion, but this does deserve closer scrutiny. Win #1 was a rematch against Kevin Burns, who has beaten nobody notable in his career except for Roan Carneiro. I think UFC keeps him around because he won submission of the night when he beat him, but to me he’s the perfect example of a MMA midcarder – win some lose some never move up the ranks or get a title shot. Coincidentally Johnson’s next opponent Luigi Fiorvanti could be described the exact same way. Last but not least he defeated Yoshiyuki Yoshida, which sounds impressive on paper, but the problem is he missed weight by 6 pounds and probably outweighed the diminutive Yoshida by at least 20 on fight night, which is why he was denied KO of the night for what was in all fairness a total weight class mismatch. Koscheck will be the first real test he’s had, and Koscheck has fought a much higher class of fighters than Johnson – Diego Sanchez, GSP, and most recently Frank Trigg who he TKO’d in under 90 seconds. That fight proved that the man once regarded as a one-dimensional wrestler had worked long and hard on his striking and the dividends are finally starting to pay out. Johnson clearly has phenomenal strikes but Koscheck could just as easily catch him so Rumble better keep those hands up. I suspect this turns into a chess match with Koscheck picking where the fight goes and gaining the upper hand in every scenario. Unanimous decision for the more experienced Kos.

Jim says:

Johnson should be able to keep some distance and once he lands one of those big shots he’ll put Kos to sleep. Or at least that’s what I’m hoping. Jann (Jim’s special lady friend) will say, “That asshole Koscheck just got KO’ed!”

GG says:

Koscheck has lost four times in the UFC octagon. On three of those occasions, he was fighting guys who were bigger and stronger than him, and in two instances, they were simply able to impose their will on him. When he fought Thiago Alves, it was the only time when he truly looked overmatched. Johnson is taller and may not punch as hard, but I think he’s going to be able to land just as well. Koscheck has some nice boxing skills and fast hands, but he gets hit way too much.

Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz

Big D: Ortiz by decision
Duan: Ortiz by 2nd round TKO
Alan: Ortiz by decision
Stevie J: Ortiz by unanimous decision
Jim: Griffin by decision
GG: Griffin by decision

Big D says:

I think Ortiz is underrated. I really do. I actually sort of think Forrest may take him lightly, and both guys are different than they were the last time they fought. Forrest has gotten a lot better physically and Ortiz has improved mentally. I may be going on a limb here, but Ortiz takes this via 3 round decision.

Duan says:

I think this is impossible to call because we just don’t know what Ortiz will have. He says that this is the best he has felt in years, but the problem is that Tito says that everytime he fights. I think the loser in this one is pretty much done as far as meaningful matches go. If i had to pick, Ortiz stops him with ground and pound in the second.

Alan says:

Don’t care at all about this fight. Both fighters have overstayed their welcome in my life.

Stevie J says:

Some say their last fight was the bout that made Griffin a light heavyweight superstar. Some even say that Griffin won their last fight in every way but on the scorecards. Some might be right about that, but 2009 Tito Ortiz is stronger and healthier off back surgery and 2009 Griffin has looked bad in two straight fights – first he lost the title, then he lost his mind. They’ve each got something to prove here, each having lost in their last fight in the Octagon, which makes it a no-lose situation. And make no mistake about it, despite two embarassing fights, Griffin is still legit dangerous. He pummeled Rampage Jackson with kicks until he could barely stand. He submitted Shogun Rua with a rear naked choke. On the right day, under the right circumstances, Forrest Griffin is one of the top five light heavyweights in the world – and for at least a cup of coffee was the undisputed #1. Having tasted the top at least once, I know he’d like a second cup, but going against a man some consider the most dominant LHW champion in UFC history doesn’t make his road to redemption any easier. What’s the verdict? Well Griffin always talks strategy until he gets in the Octagon, and once he gets there he either follows the gameplan or says fuck it and goes for broke. If he tries that with Ortiz, he’ll lose badly. Ortiz will train cardio for 5 even though it’s only 3 rounds just to prove a point. He won’t get tired, and barring something odd or bizarre, I don’t seem him being taken down. Ortiz will do the taking, and it will be a feast. Griffin needs to time the takedowns and either stuff them or land a big knee. He COULD do it. Again, he may have beaten Ortiz the last time. It can be argued. What can’t be argued is that when reckless abandon collides with athletic precision, 9 times out of 10, athletic precision wins.

Jim says:

This is a tough one to call. If Ortiz really is healthy and at 100% he might be able to pull it off, but I think he has too many things working against him. He’s been out of action for an extended period of time, I think the sport has passed him by and he hasn’t adapted his skill set to catch up. If Griffin can avoid the takedown I think he can squeak this one out. Or Ortiz may break his psyche and send him packing.

GG says:

Ortiz is such a wild card at this point. No one knows if he still has it. He’s coming off back surgery and hasn’t fought in a year and a half. Plus, he barely beat Griffin the first time. I’m not so sure what makes him the favorite. We’ll see very soon whether he has his legs, which usually go when you have back troubles. I think that Griffin will be able to use his length and just chip away at Ortiz with leg kicks. Griffin has been stopped on his back badly, so he’s going to have to stay off his back. I think Griffin wins on points, but I’ll be the first guy to congratulate him if he’s as explosive as he once was.

There you have it. We’re completely split on Johnson and Koscheck, while four of us thinks Ortiz wins to only two for Griffin.

We’ll be back tomorrow with play by play of UFC 106, though it may be delayed.

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