Tomorrow night, Affliction runs their second MMA card with WAMMA heavyweight champion Fedor Emelianenko facing off against challenger Andrei Arlovski. Emelianenko ran through Tim Sylvia on the first Affliction card, while Arlovski beat Ben Rothwell on the same card and then Roy Nelson on the final EXC card. Duan and Alan are back to go over the main event, as well as two other fights on the card.

You can see the full card on the wikipedia page for the show.

Renato “Babalu” Sobral vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

By Alan

Sokoudjou vs. Babalu

THE BATTLE OF MEN WITH ONE NAME. Fuck it! I love it!

I think Sokoudjou takes this one. I haven’t liked what I’ve seen from Babby ever since Chuck beat his ass in 2006. On the flip side of the coin, I think folks are being WAAAAY to quick to write off Sokoudjou. He’s so young, and sooooo athletic. The guy probably picks things up at an insane rate and he’s in a good camp to boot. Ultimately I think he’s back in the UFC at some point, and could maybe even have a title shot or two in his future. The guy has proven to have KO power and of course has a phenomenal Judo pedigree. If he can learn to transition the latter into his game a bit more, that’ll really up his game in my opinion.

Of course Sok’s big weakness is BJJ, and that’s where Babalu will pose the biggest threat to him in this fight. I hope he’s been working hard at that and he has enough so he doesn’t seem like a fish out of water down there. If he hasn’t, and Babalu is motivated enough, then we’ll probably see an easy submission or G&P finish.

Sokodjou will avoid the dangerous positions and overwhelm Babalu standing. I see a late first round KO to finish.

Matt Lindland vs. Vitor Belfort

By Duan

This is poor match making from Affliction in my opinion. This is a company which is in desperate need of a guy who can draw money, and Belfort could still possibly be that guy for them. Although Vitor has been inconsistent throughout his career and relatively inactive over the last couple of years, people still really believe in him. He just has that star quality about him. If you don’t believe me, just listen to the crowd react when he walks to the ring on Saturday night. He’s got momentum coming off a huge knock out of Terry Martin at Banned, so you would think Affliction would be looking to capitalize on that. What they do not need is Belfort in a boring fight. This not only has the potential to be a boring fight, but also one in which Vitor could look really bad in.

Matt Lindland is a damn good fighter without question, but he’s the type of fighter who can make opponents look awful. He is coming off an uninspiring decision victory over Fabio Nascimento at the first Affliction show, in what was possibly the worst fight on the card. Lindland’s wrestling credentials are such that he might take Belfort down at will, and ground and pound conservatively for three rounds.

Belfort’s weakness has always been his mental strength. Physically he’s one of the most gifted athletes to ever compete in MMA. He has excellent boxing skills with huge knockout power, and a solid ground game to go with it. It’s always just been a case of if he turns up in the right frame of mind. When things start going against him, he has a tendency to just shut down. He has seemed mentally more prepared in his last few outings, in particular against James Zikic in Cage Rage, where he entered the fight with a broken hand, and relied purely on his ground skills to take a decision victory. But the question remains the same – What is Vitor’s mind set going into this fight? He will get taken down by Lindland, and it’s matter of how he will respond to it. For Vitor to win this fight he will have to be patient, remain calm and pick his moments carefully. He cannot afford any lapses in concentration against a guy like Lindland.

I just feel this is a bad match up for Belfort. He has struggled with strong wrestlers, particularly Lindland’s old Team Quest team mates Couture and Henderson. I expect this fight to be similar, I see Lindland taking him down and frustrating him en route to unanimous decision.

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Andrei Arlovski

By Alan

Heck of a fight here. I’m really torn as to what I think happens. So much of this fight depends on Andrei mentally. Fedor’s frame of mind and mental strength cannot be doubted at this point. Whatever chinks he may have in his armour, his mental focus isn’t one of them. He is the exact same in almost every single fight. Andrei however has had some fights where he’s 100% focused and where he needs to be mentally, an others where he flakes out. His first Affliction fight was definitely in the former category and he looked like a killer as a result. If that Andrei shows up, I give him big big shot at winning this thing. If the Andrei from the Werdum fight shows up, he’s not gonna last very long.

I predict the fight will largely take place on the feet, and it will be Fedor’s power and big shots vs. Andrei’s speed and boxing technique. Neither man has a chin of granite so I think the prospect of a flash KO will be there at all times, and that should make for a very exciting fight even if they aren’t exchanging like Kawajiri and Alvarez.

As for a pick, I’m really torn. If I’m putting money down, it’s DEFINITELY on Arlovski since he’s the dog, but if the odds were the same for both guys, I think I’d just go with Fedor because he’s the safer bet. We know what he’ll bring to the table, we’re not 100% sure with Arlovski.

By Duan

I’m surprised by how quick people have been to write off Arlovski in this one. The end of Andrei’s UFC run really seemed to damage his credibility in the eyes of the fans, but a lot of the criticism directed his way seems unjustified. People seem to forget that he won the last three fights on his UFC contract against very good fighters. He may not have looked like the Andrei of old, but he was given opponents that it was very difficult to look good against. Nobody else in UFC wanted to fight Werdum or O’Brien, and Arlovski beat them both back to back. Since then he has dismantled Ben Rothwell and Roy Nelson, showing just how dangerous he can be. Make no mistake about it; he deserves his shot at Fedor, and will be the toughest opponent he’s faced in several years.

If this fight is mainly contested on the feet, as Alan predicted, it will make for a very intriguing fight. Arlovski’s hand speed is second to none in heavyweight mixed martial arts, and combining that with huge, one punch knockout power, you have to give him a chance against anybody, including Fedor. If Arlovski can keep the fight at a distance, it will pose some interesting questions for Fedor. Andrei will have the reach advantage, he’s more mobile, and should be able to pick off Fedor with his ever improving boxing skills. Fedor will fair better fighting on the inside. There he can neutralize Andrei’s technical boxing, and unleash his own power shots.

If the fight hits the floor I have to favour Fedor. Arlovski has an excellent take down defense, but in all his recent fights he has got careless at some point and spent time on his back as a result. He can’t afford to do this against Fedor. The guy’s ground and pound is just terrifying and I just don’t see The Pitbull lasting too long with him on the ground.

I’m going to pick the underdog here. Everybody eventually losses in MMA and Fedor’s time must be coming soon. Arlovski will use both his footwork and his jab to control the distance between them, and will eventually catch Fedor on his way in with a big right hand for the KO.

Arlovski will win by KO in round 2.

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